‘Attacks by Iran proxies on Western interests to hit global economy’
‘Direct military confrontation seen unlikely’
“THE science of economics is a difficult topic for humanity, but I will do my best to simplify it,” columnist and former Kuwaiti ambassador Ahmad Al-Dawas wrote for Al-Seyassah daily.
“Post the assassination of the commander of the Iranian Al-Quds (Jerusalem) legion in Iraq, the struggle between the United States of America and Iran is likely to get bogged down in indirect armed conflict.
“In other words, I think this conflict will not develop into a direct military confrontation between Washington and Tehran, rather it will result in Iran using its allies or rather supporters in the region and urge them to devastate oil installations in the Gulf region including that of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in addition to impeding navigation in the Gulf waters, opting for international terrorism and e-attacks and this shall lead to soaring oil prices.
“It is needless to say oil plays a significant role in the global economy, because in every state there are some sectors such as the industry, agriculture and some others which depend on the oil for their running and are affected when the oil prices fluctuate.
“Given the above, the soaring of oil prices, will not help the industrialists or those working in the field of agriculture and this shall create a slump, viz setback in demand and the decrease of the profits in addition to reduction of expenditures that might be needed to meet the projects, as such the economic growth in some states such as China, Japan, India, South Korea, Turkey and most of the European states will be negatively affected.
“However, based on the expectations of JP Morgan (the biggest bank in America and one of the biggest banks in the world) a struggle is likely to erupt that will eventually lead to closing down the Strait of Hormuz for six months and this development will cause a hike in oil prices to the tune of 120 percent and the price of a barrel of oil is likely to exceed $150.
“And even if the oil supplies sees some kind of instability lasting for one month, for instance, we expect this prospective development will lead to the increase in the price of oil (about US$80 per barrel) while the prices in the stock markets (bourses) will fall by more than 30 percent, and this means acute global slump will prevail.
“However, this is what was quoted by the professor at the College of Commerce at New York University Nouril Nobini who is also a specialist in the international affairs.
“Our comment on the prospective closure of the Strait of Hormuz show that Iran will not be in a position to shut down the Strait in the face of the maritime navigation, because there is the so-called ‘Carter Principle’ declared by the former US Democrat president Jimmy Carter in 1980 post the former Soviet Union occupation of Afghanistan.
“Through this principle Carter sent an indirect strong warning to the Soviets that ‘Any attempt that is likely to be exerted by any foreign power to dominate the Gulf region, will be deemed as an aggression against the vital interests of the United States of America, as such this prospective aggression will be resisted by all necessary means including the military might’.
“For his part, the military expert at the US based The International Center for Strategic Studies Antony Kurdsman says if Iran resorts to laying sea mines to close the Strait of Hormuz, then America has a military arsenal through which it can deter Iran and eventually prevent the latter from carrying out its plan.
“He added, the Iranians are fully aware of what we did against Iraq in 1991 and boasted of air force of accuracy.
“Meanwhile, we say the Strait of Hormuz was not closed in the face of navigation during the Iraqi-Iranian war although some of the ships were attacked, but not withstanding, the American-Iranian conflict and the prospective attacks to be waged by Iran supporters in the region will not encourage the investors and this means that the prices of stocks will suffer accordingly, and such a prospective development will negatively affect the global economy for a period of time.”
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“The economy is the lifeline of all societies, and its breakdown will look like the declaration of death in any country,” columnist Meshal Al-Quraifa wrote for Al-Anba daily.
“Kuwait faced difficulties and was able to emerge victorious and with minimal damage from corona virus crisis, hence, we expect the country through its own potentials and by the virtue of the cooperation among its citizens and the sacrifices of its men and women who are currently working along the frontlines in addition to the commitment of Kuwaitis to abide by the health instructions and conditions strictly.
“But what is happening now is that the crisis has been prolonged, and the reports received indicate the inability until now to discover effective vaccines to stop the spread of the virus, and this threatens the economies of the whole world, including Kuwait, which depends on the revival of its economy, which has begun to dwindle and shrink compared to previous years.
“I am not calling for giving preference for money and economy over human life, but at the same time it is not possible to go around and close the whole world, and not to find effective solutions to deal with the virus and prevent it, so that we guarantee the safety of our economy and prevent it from collapsing, so the return to normal life which now is an urgent necessity through some procedures that shall guarantee the safety of economy and prevent it from total collapse.
“In other words, the return to normal life at the moment is an imperative necessity and this requires the adoption of the necessary preventive and precautionary measures that should enough to guarantee the safety of all people in the country.
“The return and movement of the economy has become a national demand. Dozens of companies have closed their doors, hundreds of citizens and thousands of residents have been demobilized, business has been stalled and small and medium-sized enterprises have been stalled due to measures to prevent corona virus, and we have not yet known that stopping the economy will paralyze the entire system.
“The matter is now in the hands of the decision-makers. We need the audacity to deal with the epidemic and the start the economic wheel again, in addition to the resumption of the transport and the travel movement and this entails the resumption of the Kuwait International Airport its activities because the latter represents the life artery that links the State of Kuwait with the other countries of the world.
“Persistent closure hurts the country more than that of coronavirus, and this means that the most significant action that should be taken by us in this connection, is by taking a firm measures in dealing with both the arrivals and the departures in addition to imposing a condition that shall request all arrivals to produce medical certificates proving they had passed the test in their country prior to their arrival in Kuwait.
“In the meantime, the concerned authorities in the State of Kuwait must hasten to conduct necessary medical test for all travelers before allowing them to leave the country, and applying these measures to guarantee the reactivation of our economy in addition to the prevention of transmission of infection.
“Thousands of expatriates want to travel and return to and from their country or visit their relatives, and spend the vacation with their family, and this is nothing wrong with it, life must continue, especially as the world’s largest countries have opened their economies and returned to normal life, including our neighbor Saudi Arabia but with strict measures and controls that should not be allowed to violate, penetrate or bypass.
“Anyway, the time is currently knocking on our doors, as such the delay will not be for the good any party, since we know that some companies have started shutting down their doors and the workers have been laid off.
“The doors of economic paralysis and phase destruction are beginning to be touched, and fears are beginning to increase, and anxiety is spreading over the atmosphere and tension is looming over the country, and the wheel of the economy is rusting and needs years to return as it was unless we remedy the situation and returned to normal life with utmost speed.
“We must reopen our airspace and doors for arrivals, and allow those who wish to leave and return freely, provided they are subjected to the valid preventive health conditions capable of guaranteeing the public safety through the persistent follow up to be undertaken by the concerned authorities in the country.”
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“No one can deny the recent increase in the number of people infected with coronavirus in the country and we are at the beginning of the second stage of the gradual return to normal life plan,” columnist Hamoud Nasser Al-Amer wrote for Al-Rai daily.
“Many -- if not all of us -- are troubled by the noticeable high rate of infection among Kuwaitis compared to residents of all nationalities during the past week. They wonder about the causes and reasons. It will not make us think a lot.
“This is a matter of close contact, interaction and non-compliance with the preventive health instructions and requirements, which prevent the expansion of the virus that may have infected an entire family through one medium who sits close to them and in turn interacts with others.
“However, do these practices occur as a result of unconsciousness or a way of underestimating the effect of the virus and setting aside health precautions without being indifferent to the consequences as a response to the length of the total and partial curfew?
“When the Cabinet approved the gradual return to normal life plan, it wagered on the awareness of the citizen and the resident as they continue to fight in a bitter war to curb the spread of the virus. Thus, the individual is responsible for protecting himself and then the society.”