Birth of a new Middle East
The features of the new Middle East do not strategically match those planned by Henry Kissinger, those written about by Simon Peres nor those Condoleezza Rice had hoped for. It seems that Vladimir Putin is the one setting all outlines after he brilliantly managed to take control of all striking forces and diplomacy according to a will that seems to no longer exists in the West. Why has Putin succeed while Obama, Cameron and Merkel failed?!
Russia succeeded on Syrian soil despite its involvement in the battle relatively late, namely five years after Western interference and insurgents’ control of over 60 percent of Syria. Putin militarily succeeded under an umbrella of the UN veto that paralyzed any countermeasures on the ground. The Russians had a clearer and more straightforward goal of protecting the Syrian regime and military, while the West was divided between supporting dozens of groups that are already fighting without any common political project but to topple the regime without having a real achievable alternative, which might lead to another Libyan experience and the security and political vacuum in the aftermath of toppling Gaddafi, which eventually devastated the entire country.
The Russians also had a strategic vision on fighting insurgents including those from Russia’s vicinity, while the West only had contradicting double-measured visions, as the growth of religious groups and militia might enable them to invade their Western allies just the way like what happened with the mujahedeen movement in Afghanistan that managed to strike in the heart of New York, London, Paris and Berlin. Accordingly, the Russians were more loyal to their allies, while US and Western allies sold out their friends, deserted them and ambushed them in Aleppo, which witnessed the beginning of ending the war in Syria. Putin was smarter and more capable of foreseeing the future than the mightiest Western strategy experts. The Russian president interpreted US and European public opinion indicators more wisely than the leaders of those countries. He betted on the rightists’ surge that would create a knockdown domino effect, with the success of Republican candidate Donald Trump. Thus, he decided to hold offensives quickly to have more time for political arrangements later this year.
Even in political arrangements, Putin succeeded in making a quick breach by declaring a ceasefire and documenting it with a Security Council resolution after direct negotiations with Iran and Turkey. He managed to hunt down most insurgents through Turkey and leave Nusra and IS with their rears completely exposed and unprotected.
History is really amazing. Ever since the Soviet era, the Russians have been supporting and aiding anti-Arab regimes’ political movements, while the Americans and the British have been letting these regimes down, and they started falling one by one. Today, the Russians are supporting their allied regimes, while the West gave up supporting Arab anti-regime blocs and groups, and thus they came out empty-handed from the birth of the new Middle East.