US bankers tell Europeans to think positively on Trump
Europeans need convincing amid saber-rattling
DAVOS, Switzerland: US bankers, buoyed by a resurgence in profits, are advising their counterparts in Europe to think positively about the new administration of US President-elect Donald Trump. But many Europeans still need convincing. At the annual gathering of the world’s political and business elites in the Swiss resort of Davos, US financiers told investors and overseas’ rivals to focus less on Trump’s anti-globalization rhetoric and more on his cabinet picks, comprising Wall Street veterans and corporate bosses. Many European bankers fear Trump, who campaigned on an “America first” platform and who has threatened to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, could trigger a trade war with the world’s secondlargest economy.
Jose Vinals, chairman of Standard Chartered Bank and a former deputy governor of the Spanish central bank, said there was a lot of unease over whether the Republican’s campaign rhetoric would translate into his policies as president.
“In Europe, there is concern and trepidation about Trump’s administration and how his politics will affect global trade and finance,” he told Reuters. “Any form of protectionism will likely ultimately make the US economy less competitive and be bad news for the world,” said Vinals, who has previously built up an expertise on Asian markets, including China, while working as a senior official at the International Monetary Fund.
But Mary Callahan Erodes, who runs the asset management arm of US bank JPMorgan, sought to assuage concerns about the incoming White House administration. She told the World Economic Forum that Trump’s officials, including former Goldman Sachs bankers Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn, would push a pro-business agenda that would drive economic growth. “We are going to have to get used to thinking very pro-actively and getting excited about growth,” she said. “It is a pendulum swing and it is going to be positive for business. It just is.”
Anthony Scaramucci, a hedge fund manager who has been appointed by Trump to liaise with the business community, was the only member of the new U.S. administration to attend the Davos forum. He spoke publicly about how Trump would be good for the global economy and, according to banking sources, followed this up with private discussions with European bankers. But the sources said industry players in Europe wanted more clarity on key US economic policies from Trump himself. Banks on both sides of the Atlantic might be happy at having a leader in the White House who has pledged to cut tax rates and ease restrictions imposed on banks’ risktaking in the wake of the financial crisis.
At private lunches and evening cocktail receptions in the swish ski resort, some US financiers expressed concern about the impact from Trump’s blunt reevaluation of key foreign policy principles and his penchant for castigating American companies on Twitter.
Most bankers expect volatile market swings in 2017 after investors, having driven up stock prices in anticipation of tax cuts and spending hikes, grow impatient for action. Increased volatility plays to Wall Street banks’ greater strength in trading bonds, stocks and currencies.
US investment banks have already reported bumper fourth-quarter results following a surge in trading volumes across commodities, interest rate products and foreign exchange as investors reworked their portfolios in response to Donald Trump’s surprise victory and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. Goldman Sachs, the bank most dependent on trading, has seen its stock rise nearly 30 percent since the Nov. 8 election. — Reuters