Cabinet’s resignation and four scenarios
There are four possible scenarios by which the government could face a parliamentary session held to call for ‘no-trust’ in the Minister of Information and Minister of State for Youth Affairs, Sheikh Salman Al-Humoud.
These scenarios are purely impartial, though one should take sides during this very murky phase of our political history. As anyone can see, the government has scores of options while the opposition can only accelerate its grilling motion, its only tool against a minister. The four scenarios are:
The dissolving of parliament by placing a ‘lack of cooperation’ motion, before filing a proposed grilling motion against HH the Prime Minister by any lawmaker. A number of independent or progovernment MPs will probably race to file grilling motions against a number of other ministers, just as happened in 1986. This will be followed by a dissolution and calls for early parliamentary elections, which are unlikely to happen.
The second scenario is a limited reshuffle giving Sheikh Salman a different portfolio. This would render the grilling motion useless, and with the opposition only achieving a ‘PR victory.’ It would also be an incomplete victory for the independent and pro-government MPs, who suddenly declared their support for the no-trust motion.
The third scenario most resembles the current situation, which suggests the government, along with a large number of MPs, will not attend the session. It would therefore lose quorum and be adjourned until further notice. It would convey that the government is capable of imposing its own agenda by ‘killing’ the session.
The fourth scenario, which is easier, is the resignation of cabinet after its meeting, held only two days before the no-trust parliamentary session. The prime minister would form a new cabinet with over 80 percent of the current ministers and a slight adjustment of portfolios. It would be a new cabinet with the same players changing positions.
It is obvious from the four scenarios that the government holds the upper hand, and has various options to quash the grilling motion. This raises a question: given the government has more options than the new opposition, why did it willingly abdicate them during the session, despite its comfortable majority? I personally believe the government will opt for the easiest option and submit its resignation.