China move puts onus on US in N Korea impasse
China’s snap decision to halt North Korean coal imports — a key economic lifeline for Pyongyang — has a broader motive aimed at shaping Donald Trump’s as yet undefined policy towards the North’s rogue nuclear arms program, experts say. North Korea defied the world a week ago with a missile test and is suspected of orchestrating the stunning assassination a day later of supreme leader Kim Jong-Un’s half-brother in Malaysia, provocative acts that followed a nuclear test in September.
China is often the target of US criticism for not doing enough to rein in its irascible neighbor. But analysts said China’s ban on North Korean coal imports for the rest of this year could be an attempt by Beijing to defuse such criticisms while nudging North Korea and the United States toward negotiations. “If China is squeezing North Korea, it is for one purpose and one purpose only: to offer a cooperative gesture to the incoming Trump administration in return for an initiative on negotiations,” Stephan Haggard, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, wrote in a blog post.
Under the Obama administration, Washington pursued a policy of “strategic patience” toward North Korea in hopes that sanctions would bring Pyongyang to heel and force it to abandon its nukes. The incoming Trump administration has stepped up the rhetoric, with the US leader saying after the Feb 12 missile launch that Pyongyang was a “big, big problem” and would be dealt with “very strongly”.
Onus on Trump
China shares US concerns about Pyongyang obtaining a nuclear weapon, but prefers negotiations to sanctions, which it fears could destabilize North Korea and send a flood of refugees across their shared border. “China’s main goal in making this move is to put the onus back on Washington, fair and square to solve this problem,” said Peter Hayes, director of the Nautilus Institute. “In effect they are saying to the US: OK, we did what you wanted, we lit a fire under their feet. What are you going to do to solve the DPRK problem now?” he added, using the acronym for North Korea’s official name.
The UN Security Council has imposed six sets of sanctions since Pyongyang first tested an atomic device in 2006. But North Korea has continued to thumb its nose at the world with a series of missile launches over the years and two nuclear tests in 2016 alone. Beijing traditionally ensures that UN sanctions against Pyongyang include humanitarian exemptions, and had continued to purchase huge amounts of North Korean coal - over $168 million worth in December alone.