Scottish nationalism, euroscepticism rising
Referendum in 2018/19 would not be legal: UK minister
Support for Scottish independence is at a record high but still remains below 50 percent, according to a new study published yesterday after First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced a new bid to break away. Sturgeon has said a second referendum was needed because of Scottish support for EU ties but the study found that rising euroscepticism in Scotland could undermine her argument. Sturgeon on Monday announced she would seek authority for a second referendum on leaving the United Kingdom, ideally before it leaves the European Union in early 2019.
A majority of Scots wanted to stay in the EU in last June’s Brexit referendum, but were outvoted by the rest of Britain. The ScotCen long-term social attitudes study found that 46 percent of Scots now back independence from the rest of Britain, the highest level since the survey began in 1999. “Overwhelming support for independence among younger voters might mean there is majority support for independence in future,” it said. But the survey, conducted between July and December last year, also found rising levels of euroscepticism, from 40 percent in 1999 to 67 percent last year. “Now might not be the best time for the SNP to hold a second referendum,” the NatCen centre said, referring to Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party. “High levels of euroscepticism in Scotland mean focusing on EU membership may not be the best way to swing voters in favor of ‘Yes’.” A YouGov opinion poll for The Times newspaper found 43 percent would support independence and 57 percent would reject it, once those who did not know or were undecided were excluded.
It was largely conducted before Sturgeon’s announcement. A similar survey last November put support for independence at 44 percent. British Prime Minister Theresa May has rejected the idea of a second vote as “divisive”, less than three years after Scots voted by 55 percent to reject independence, and accused the SNP of playing politics. Angus Robertson, the SNP’s most senior figure in the British parliament, told The Guardian newspaper that a referendum could be avoided if Scotland was allowed to stay in the EU single market.
Independence referendum
It would be impossible to hold a legal and decisive referendum on Scottish independence in the timeframe demanded by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, the British government’s Scotland minister said in a newspaper interview published yesterday. Sturgeon, leader of the proindependence Scottish National Party (SNP), on Monday demanded a new referendum in late 2018 or early 2019, once the terms of Britain’s exit from the European Union become clearer but before Brexit happens.
“It would be impossible for people in the timescale suggested by Nicola Sturgeon to make a reasoned view and, therefore, have a legal, fair and decisive referendum,” Britain’s Scotland Secretary David Mundell told The Herald. The United Kingdom as a whole voted last year to leave the EU, but Scotland, one of the UK’s four constituent parts, voted to stay. Sturgeon has argued Scotland should not be dragged out of the bloc against its will.
Scots rejected independence by 55 to 45 percent in a referendum in 2014, but the SNP argue that the circumstances have changed since then, because of Brexit. The UK government has consistently argued that no new vote should be held, but the British parliament has the final word on whether any legally binding referendum can take place. Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May has accused the SNP of “tunnel vision” and said it should focus on delivering good public services for Scotland rather than “playing politics” with Britain’s future.
Conflicting polls
Recent surveys of Scottish public opinion give a complex picture of views on independence. An annual indepth social attitudes survey, conducted from July to December last year and published on Wednesday, found that support for independence stood at 46 percent, the highest level since the series began in 1999. But the survey also found that skepticism about the EU was on the rise in Scotland, suggesting that, as a single factor, the commitment of some voters to the EU could be too weak for Brexit to persuade them to change their minds on staying in the UK. A separate opinion poll by YouGov, published in The Times newspaper yesterday, found support for independence at its lowest in two-and-a-half-years.