US inflation, retail sales dip in March
Consumer prices fall 0.3%
WASHINGTON: US retail sales fell for a second straight month in March and consumer prices dropped for the first time in just over a year, supporting views that the economy lost significant momentum in the first quarter. But with the labor market near full employment, the decline in sales and consumer prices reported by the government yesterday is likely temporary and probably does not change expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in June.
“For the Fed, the underlying momentum is more important in terms of policy decisions, and that looks to be strong, supported by a tightening labor market, rising incomes and high consumer confidence,” said Gregory Daco, head of US macroeconomics at Oxford Economics in New York. The Commerce Department said retail sales dropped 0.2 percent last month after a 0.3 percent decrease in February, which was the first and biggest decline in nearly a year. Compared to March last year retail sales increased 5.2 percent.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales slipping 0.1 percent last month. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rebounded 0.5 percent after falling 0.2 percent in February. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Despite last month’s increase in core retail sales, consumer spending likely braked sharply in the first quarter after growing at a brisk 3.5 percent annualized rate in the final three months of 2016.
The apparent slowdown in consumption is partly blamed on the late disbursement of income tax refunds by the government as it sought to combat fraud. The Atlanta Fed is forecasting GDP rising at a 0.6 percent rate in the first quarter. This would be the weakest performance in three years and follows a 2.1 percent growth pace in the fourth quarter. With job growth averaging 178,000 per month in the first quarter, the anticipated slowdown in GDP likely understates the health of the economy. In addition, first-quarter GDP tends to be weaker because of calculation problems that the government has acknowledged and is working to resolve. Retail sales last month were dragged down by receipts at auto dealerships, which fell 1.2 percent, decreasing for a third straight month. Sales at service stations dropped 1.0 percent, reflecting lower gasoline prices. There were also decreases in sales at building material stores, likely as bad weather halted work at construction sites.
Pockets of Strength
But there were some areas of strength. Sales at electronics and appliances stores recorded their biggest rise since June 2015 and receipts at clothing stores increased by the most in a year. Retailers have been hurt by declining mall traffic and increased competition from online retailers, led by Amazon.com. That has forced retailers like J C Penney Co Inc, Abercrombie & Fitch and Macy’s Inc to scale back on brick-and-mortar operations.
The dollar was little moved by the data. US stocks and Treasuries markets are closed for the Good Friday holiday. In a separate report, the Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index dropped 0.3 percent in March, the first decline since February 2016, as declining costs for gasoline and mobile phone services offset rising rents and food prices. The CPI nudging up 0.1 percent in February. In the 12 months through March, the CPI rose 2.4 percent, slowing from February’s 2.7 percent increase.
The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, fell 0.1 percent, the first and largest decrease since January 2010, after rising 0.2 percent in February. As a result, the year-on-year increase slowed to 2.0 percent. That was the smallest advance since November 2015 and followed a 2.2 percent increase in February.