Banking stocks, dollar hit by US doubts
LONDON: Banking stocks dropped and the dollar slipped yesterday as doubts over tax cuts and bond market moves hurt profitability and raised questions over the longevity of the current expansion in the United States. European banking stocks were the worst performing sector as share indexes across the continent opened lower, following a poor session for U.S. banks.
The dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies , hurt by a media report that suggested the implementation of a centrepiece corporate tax cut under discussion in US tax reforms plans could be delayed. Derek Halpenny, head of global markets research at Mitsubishi UFJ in London, said he was dubious over the progress of the tax cuts program being urged by US President Donald Trump’s administration. “The initial phases of discussions within the House (of Representatives) have brought up a lot of divisions and problems ... If the story is true that they’re considering a delay of one year to the corporate tax cut, those big differences will need to be sorted,” he said.
Francois Savary, chief investment officer at wealth manager Prime Partners, said the doubts over the tax issue reinforce the case for some consolidation in the market, which has been fully priced for good news. “It’s something that would impact the domestic stocks in the US and would be a setback for the market in general (and) it’s more than stock specific as people would reassess earnings growth expectations to the downside,” he said. Overnight, Goldman Sachs shares lost 1.51 percent and weighed the most on the main stock index. Yesterday, futures pricing pointed to a another lower open on Wall Street, down 0.1 percent. The losses come after the US 2to-10-year Treasury yield curve hit its flattest in a decade, potentially cutting into the profits of banks, which borrow money at short-term interest rates in order to lend it out at longer terms.
Such a move can also imply that investors are expecting a slowdown. European bonds were also snared by this yield curve flattening phenomenon, with yields on longterm German bonds falling to two-month lows yesterday. This is a reversal of the trend when Trump was elected as US president a year ago. Yields and stock prices jumped in late 2016 on what was dubbed the “Trumpflation” trade: a bet on rising rates, inflation and securities prices in the United States and beyond.
Analysts believe that a flattening yield curve at a time when the Federal Reserve is hiking rates is a sign that investors are concerned over the sustainability of economic growth and inflation in the world’s biggest economy.
In the European session, the two main banking indices suffered the most, the eurozone index falling 0.7 percent and the Europe-wide banking equivalent dropping 0.6 percent, dragging an index of pan-European stocks lower 0.3 percent.
Earlier, Asian shares wrung out another decade peak as data showed China’s demand for imports remained buoyant, pushing the MSCI world equity index to a fresh high. Beijing reported imports in October rose 17.2 percent from a year earlier, beating forecasts of 16 percent, but export growth was just under estimates at 6.9 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index shed 0.1 percent to 22,913.82 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng retreated 0.3 percent to 28,907.60. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 2 points to 3,415.46 and Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 added 2 points to 6,116.30. — Agencies