What next for rebels, civilians in Ghouta?

BEIRUT: As Russia-backed Syrian regime forces chip away at what remains of the last opposition bastion outside Damascus, experts say the future looks bleak for rebels there. What is likely to happen to these opposition fighters, most of whom hail from the area, as well as tens of thousands of civilians still inside the besieged enclave?

How do things stand? Government forces have retaken 80 percent of the former rebel bastion since launching a blistering air and ground assault to retake it on February 18, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says. They have split the remaining areas under rebel control into three separate pockets, each held by different opposition factions, the Britain-based monitor says. The rebel Jaish al-Islam group is isolated in a northern pocket around the main town of Douma, while hardliners from Ahrar al-Sham control a small area around the town of Harasta to the west. In the south, Faylaq al-Rahman holds the town of Arbin and surrounding territory. When fighting stops, negotiations are likely to determine the fate of opposition fighters and civilians there, analysts say.

“Fighting will stop at some point and they will negotiate,” geography expert Fabrice Balanche said, adding that such talks could be prolonged. As it seeks to win back control of the country, the Assad regime has often sought evacuation deals in rebel-held areas after brutal bombardment campaigns or suffocating sieges. This was the case in the central city Homs in 2014 and in the northern city of Aleppo as regime forces retook full control of it in late 2016. These socalled “reconciliation” deals saw rebels evacuated to other parts of the country under opposition control, including the northwestern province of Idlib.

Will Ghouta see evacuation?

Eastern Ghouta’s rebels have said they reject any evacuation, but on Friday announced they were prepared to hold direct United Nations-backed ceasefire talks with regime backer Russia. Thomas Pierret, another Syria analyst, said the rebels stood little chance against the onslaught, which the Observatory says has claimed more than 1,400 civilian lives in a month.

However “excellent in urban warfare” Eastern Ghouta’s rebels are, they “can’t do much faced with the regime’s fire power”, he said. When fighting stops, talks will decide what becomes of the rebels-most of whom, Pierret said, originate from the region. Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century Foundation, said that makes evacuations particularly devastating. —AFP