Kyrgyzstan: What to expect after the bloody clashes?
BISHKEK: Kyrgyzstan is in the throes of A political crisis with former leader Almazbek Atambayev in custody after dramatic clashes between his supporters and law enforcement left one officer dead and scores of people injured. How did the fragile Central Asian country reach this point, and will history repeat itself and see a third president overthrown in less than three decades of independence?
How did we get here?
Unlike other ex-Soviet countries in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan has fiercely contested elections and political life is often unpredictable as the constitution forbids presidents from seeking re-election. Atambayev’s detention came after more than a year of tensions with the man whom he backed to succeed him in the 2017 vote, President Sooronbai Jeenbekov.
But Atambayev, whose six years in power saw few notable reforms, attempted to continue wielding power even after leaving office, and began to publicly criticize his protege, says Arkadii Dubnov, a Moscow-based regional analyst. “Jeenbekov tolerated this for a time before deciding to punish his former mentor,” Dubnov said.
“On the orders of the new president, a series of criminal cases were opened against the old one,” he said. Many of his allies face long jail terms on graft charges and a once-loyal parliament voted to strip him of immunity in June, so Atambayev began a last stand at his plush compound in the picturesque village of Koi-Tash near the capital Bishkek. An attempt to detain him on Wednesday was called off after supporters resisted the assault with firearms, but Atambayev surrendered to police on Thursday.
Why is this worrying?
Impoverished Kyrgyzstan has been prone to political infighting for much of its 28-year independence, occasionally with bloody consequences. When Atambayev, then a moderate opposition figure, was detained by police in 2010, thousands of his supporters took to the streets along with other protesters to help overthrow strongman Kurmanbek Bakiyev.
Two months later, ethnic clashes between majority Kyrgyz and minority Uzbeks in the south of the country left over 400 people dead. Because Atambayev is a northerner and Jeenbekov a southerner, their standoff risks inflaming the traditional regional and clan rivalry that characterized local politics even in Soviet times. Critics say Atambayev has played a part in fuelling north-south tensions in recent weeks by deploying inflammatory rhetoric at his public appearances. The former leader has accused Jeenbekov, whose brother is a lawmaker, of forming a “family-clan regime” along with other southern allies.
Major unrest to come?
The operation to detain Atambayev saw the people of Kyrgyzstan glued to online news coverage, but few believe Atambayev has enough political clout to launch a third revolution. Police on Thursday dispersed an unruly crowd of several hundred supporters who gathered near Bishkek’s central square — the site of revolutions in 2005 and 2010 - after Atambayev was detained.
The situation in Bishkek since then has been calm. Some commentators raised fears that the return to the country Friday of another political heavyweight whom Jeenbekov defeated in the bitterly contested 2017 vote could further destabilize a tense environment. Charismatic magnate Omurbek Babanov, 49, arrived at Bishkek’s main airport on Friday from Russia, where he fled after authorities loyal to Atambayev opened two probes against him during the campaign.
The State Committee for National Security (GKNB) said Babanov would “be held accountable” on his return, but security services elected not to detain the former prime minister on arrival. Analyst Dubnov says the public appetite for revolution has waned since 2005 and 2010, when leadership change did little to transform a threadbare economy or achieve institutional reforms. “Two government overthrows have left people weary,” Dubnov said. “There’s no energy for a new revolution.” — AFP