Will the US 2020 election heal or deepen the divide?
For a growing number of Americans on both sides of our ever-deepening political divide, the 2020 presidential election has become a critical contest about the future of our country. While so many significant policy concerns are at stake in Nov 2020, this will be an election about Donald Trump and what he has done to our politics. There can be no doubt that, by any measure, Donald Trump has been the most outrageous president in our history. In fact, it is a role he appears to relish. It isn’t just the policies he has pursued. It is the way in which he has exacerbated the polarization of our society and coarsened our political discourse.
Ever the performer, he has used his rallies to incite against his opponents, resorting to name-calling and even vulgarity to denigrate them. In addition, he has used his tweets and engagements with press to the same end. Despite the discomfort this has brought to the more staid members of the Republican establishment, they have, for the most part, held back from criticizing his behavior in part because they fear incurring his wrath and/or ridicule.
It’s important to understand, however, that there is a method to this madness. What Trump has intuited is the anger of a significant portion of the American electorate that has been squeezed by a changing economy, threatened by cultural forces beyond their control, and ignored by the political elites in both parties.
Whatever they are called, whether it’s the white middle class or white working class, this is the base to which Trump has played. And he has played them well. He has condemned both trade deals that he maintains have sent their factory jobs to Mexico and China in search of cheaper labor, and environmental regulations he claims have cost them their mining jobs. He has railed against immigrants whom he says have displaced hard-working Americans, and the “coastal elites” who have looked down their noses at ordinary folks, scorning their values and ignoring their aspirations. And he has preyed on people’s fears and insecurities by scapegoating Mexicans and Muslims.
When Trump says he’ll “Make American great again,” his base understands this as recapturing the country’s lost glory, while at the same time evoking a romanticized past of quiet middle class neighborhoods free of crime, where work was plentiful, and opportunities were available to all who “played by the rules.”
There are, to be sure, problems galore with both this messenger and the message. If anything, Donald Trump is the embodiment of the very “coastal elites” he derides. His business practices, values, and lifestyle are not those of his base. His bankruptcies have left tens of thousands out of work and his resorts have regularly hired undocumented cheap labor. His and his daughter’s product lines have moved their operations overseas. And the policies he has pursued have benefited the wealthy and only increased income inequality. But none of this has mattered to his base - because he speaks directly to them and has convinced them that he alone understands them and will fight for them. Hungry for a savior, they have latched onto him as their “last, best hope” to improve their lot in life. As a result, they see attacks on his presidency as threats to their future well-being.
The dilemma now confronting Democrats is how to respond to this Trump challenge. On this, the many 2020 candidates and the party, itself, are not of one mind. All are agreed that Trump’s behavior is to be condemned and that moving forward with impeachment is a national priority and a constitutional imperative. But what about the divide and how to relate to Trump’s base? Here there are divergent views.
Some appear to see no need to address this concern. They simply want to defeat the man, send him packing, and restore a Democrat to the White House. Others believe that the way forward is to heal the divide by preaching a message of unity and civility.
But while winning will obviously be an important goal for Democrats, governing in a post-Trump America is a critical concern that cannot simply be pushed aside. We have seen the dysfunction created by hyper-partisanship. When either party has controlled both the legislative and executive branches of government, bills get passed - but rancor only grows recall the “Tea Party” reaction to Obama and the “Resistance” that greeted Trump. Winning, by itself, won’t do the trick. Changing our politics and the governing coalition is what is required to move the country forward. What polling makes clear is that our political divide isn’t just partisan. It’s really demographic. For too many election cycles political consultants using advanced data mining have identified target constituencies and directed their messaging and outreach efforts to reach them.
NOTE: Dr James J Zogby is the President of the Arab American Institute