Afghanistan: Where things stand and what lies ahead
KABUL: As the United States and the Taleban stand on the verge of signing a historic deal that would see the Pentagon pull thousands of troops from Afghanistan, questions remain about what happens next. Here are some details about the accord and its implications for the warwracked nation:
Have they agreed to ceasefire?
Not quite, but the Taleban, US and Afghan forces have committed to a “reduction in violence” or a partial, weeklong truce. This is more significant than it sounds because it is only the second such lull in fighting since the US-led invasion of 2001. If it holds, it is expected to create the conditions for Washington and the insurgents to sign a deal in Doha on Saturday that would see thousands of US troops leave Afghanistan after more than 18 years, in return for various security commitments from the Taleban.
News of the truce has sparked joy across Afghanistan, with civilians pouring onto the streets to dance and celebrate the prospect of an end to the conflict that has cost tens of thousands of lives. Isolated attacks have continued, however, underscoring the difficulty of securing a permanent respite from violence. And details of what exactly the truce means are vague.
While the US has cited an “understanding” for a “significant and nationwide reduction in violence”, Afghan forces have vowed to remain “on active defense status” during the week. Taleban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid meanwhile has insisted the pause does not amount to “a ceasefire”, and said it only covers certain urban and military areas, seemingly leaving open the prospect of violence in remote rural areas. Fears that competing sides could exploit a lull to secure territorial advantage - dashing any hopes for peace - have also surfaced in the run-up to Saturday’s meeting.
What can we expect?
If the truce is successful, Washington will sign an accord with the Taleban. Under the terms of the deal, Washington is initially expected to reduce troop levels to around 8,600 - down from the current level of 12,00013,000. The remaining forces would stay behind on a “conditions-based” timeline to fight jihadists such as the Islamic State group, and monitor the overall security situation. Ultimately, if all goes well, the US troop presence could go down to zero - but few observers expect that to happen any time soon. The US and the Taleban have been tantalizingly close to a deal before, only to see President Donald Trump nix it at the eleventh hour.
What happens next?
The key to a lasting peace depends largely on the outcome of talks between the Taleban and the Afghan government, rather than between the insurgents and the US. Any such “intra-Afghan” agreement is expected to take years, analysts agree. The infighting between key political figures may also scupper chances of an agreement.
With President Ashraf Ghani and rival Abdullah Abdullah at loggerheads over contested election results, few expect the pair to bury the hatchet and present a united front. “At this stage it remains difficult to see President Ghani presenting a delegation that would be accepted by all strata of Afghan society, particularly the political opposition,” policy analyst Mariam Safi said. Further bickering would likely weaken Kabul’s position and allow the insurgents to take the upper hand in negotiations, with grim implications for Afghanistan’s nascent democracy.