Nigerian ex-governor tries ‘outsider’ upset with presidential bid
Horns blaring from the crowd, Nigerian candidate Peter Obi makes his pitch, repeating a mantra that he offers youth a chance for change in February’s election. For 35-year-old footwear seller Joseph Nwankwo it was what he wants to hear. “I never voted for any party. They believed our vote never counted. This time round we believe our vote will,” said Nwankwo at the rally in southwest Ibadan city. “We are the youth. If we don’t do it, who will do it for us?” Backed by the Labour Party, Obi is emerging as a rare third challenger to the two mainstream parties who have governed Africa’s most populous country since the end of military rule in 1999.
Next February’s election is set to be a tight race to replace President Muhammadu Buhari, who steps down with Nigeria facing huge security challenges and an economy hobbled by fallout from the pandemic and Ukraine’s war. A former southeast Anambra state governor and one-time PDP vice presidential candidate, Obi has gained momentum with a vibrant social media following and what supporters see as a fresher voice over the other old guard rivals.
Ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and main opposition Peoples Democratic Party chieftains dismiss Obi as a Twitter phenomenon devoid of a national party network to challenge their deep pockets. Obi, 61, may face many obstacles in his run to the Aso Rock presidential villa, but his message is resonating especially among younger, urban Nigerians who call themselves “Obi-dients”. Whether he can win remains unclearsome local polls have him ahead. But analysts say Obi’s challenge is already complicating the political outlook
for the PDP and APC.
APC is fielding Bola Tinubu, an 70-year-old former Lagos state governor known as the “Godfather of Lagos” for his political clout. Against him, the PDP has Atiku Abubakar, 76, a wealthy businessman on his sixth bid for the presidency. He was vice president in 1999. “All of the political and economic and social conditions have made him a palatable alternative,” SBM Intelligence analyst Ikesemit Effiong said of Obi. “It is beginning to dent the image of the traditional political parties.”
Political geography
Wearing glasses and often dressed in a simple black traditional suit, Obi has run a grass-roots campaign where he touts his experience as governor and his outsider status. A wealthy trader, Obi says he is about turning Nigeria around-increasing production rather than consumption, governing responsibly and taking on insecurity. “The government we intend to form, will be the beginning of a new Nigeria,” he told a crowd of thousands in Ibadan. “We will secure a united Nigeria.”
But with little structure nationwide and no governors, rivals say the Labour party and Obi will struggle. In 2019, the Labor Party candidate won 0.02 percent of the vote. The party elected one lawmaker. “People say the Obidients, of course they will,” said Edo State governor Godwin Obaseki, who is campaigning for PDP. “But they will run out of steam.” Nigerian elections are often about geography calculations. To win the presidency, a candidate must get a majority of the votes and also 25 percent of the votes in two thirds of its 36 states. Almost equally split between predominantly Muslim north and the mostly Christian south, Nigeria is a patchwork of ethnic groups, including the largest Yoruba, Hausa and Igbo. In an unwritten agreement to promote informal power sharing, the presidency has rotated alternatively between candidates from the north and south. But 2023 is complex. —AFP