German exports rebound in Nov
FRANKFURT: German exports rose more than expected in November, official data showed Monday, but analysts said it was too soon to signal a recovery as Europe’s largest economy continues to face a series of headwinds. Exports totaled 131.2 billion euros ($143 billion) in November, a 3.7-percent jump on the previous month, federal statistics agency Destatis said, ending several months of decline. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast an increase of just 0.7 percent.
The stronger-than-expected rebound was driven by a 5.4 percent rise in exports to fellow European Union countries, while those to the United States were down by 1.4 percent. Overall imports were down 1.9 percent, widening the country’s trade surplus to 20.4 billion euros. While the export bounce brought “some relief”, ING bank economist Carsten Brzeski cautioned against reading too much into the data. On the year, exports were down five percent, he pointed out.
“Supply chain frictions, a more fragmented global economy and China moving from a dynamic export destination to competitor are all factors weighing on the German export sector,” he said. High energy costs in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine and higher interest rates have also taken their toll on the powerhouse economy, hitting the crucial industrial sector particularly hard.
Separate data released by Destatis on Monday showed that factory orders rose by a modest 0.3 percent in November, less than analysts had expected. The “very weak increase in industrial orders shows that the economy is still far from a substantial recovery,” said Brzeski. The German economy is widely expected to have ended 2023 in recession, with the government predicting a 0.4 percent contraction. The German central bank last month slashed its growth forecast for 2024 to 0.4 percent, from an earlier prediction of 1.2 percent.
Train drivers’ strike
Meanwhile, German train drivers will start a nationwide three-day strike from Wednesday after wage talks broke down, the GDL union said Sunday. The union, which called several strikes in 2023, said the Deutsche Bahn public train company had failed to come up with a “negotiable” offer to head off industrial action. Drivers will walk off the job from 2 am (0100 GMT) Wednesday while for freight the stoppage will begin from 1700 GMT on Tuesday, the union said.
Drivers will return to work from 1700 GMT on Friday after what will be the longest stoppage the union has called to date. November and December also saw drivers walk off the job. “This strike is not only absolutely unnecessary, but we also believe it is not legally authorized,” said Deutsche Bahn director of human resources Martin Seiler. Seiler announced an injunction to try to prevent a stoppage which the operator says will seriously disrupt operations. Disruptions to freight transport come at a high cost to a German economy which is already struggling. — AFP