EU walks farming minefield with new climate goals
The EU’s climate goals for 2040 are set to further dial up the pressure on a farm sector that has yet to get tough on greenhouse gas emissions—but is already up in arms over existing environmental rules.
With European elections just months away, the European Commission will Tuesday put forward its next major target for cutting the bloc’s global warming emissions, and agriculture—which emits 11 percent of them—is a key part of the equation. Politically the timing could hardly be worse, with farmer protests simmering across Europe—thronging Brussels with tractors last week—and populist politicians swooping in to ride the wave of discontent.
Environmental constraints are high on the farmers’ list of grievances—both longstanding rules stemming from the bloc’s common agricultural policy (CAP), and new ones from the sprawling environmental Green Deal that have yet to come into force. The 27-nation EU has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050, and to get there implies massive adaptation by industry and consumers. A first target has been set for 2030: cutting emissions by at least 55 percent compared with 1990. For the next milestone, 2040, working documents suggest the EU will aim for a net drop of 90 percent.
But the Green Deal—having taken on emissions in transport, energy and manufacturing—has hit a rock when it comes to farming, faced with stiff resistance from the sector and from conservative lawmakers. Emissions from agriculture—two thirds of which are linked to methane and manure from livestock farming, and the rest to nitrogen-based fertilisers—have been stable since 2005, according to Ottmar Edenhofer, chair of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.
According to projections by the board, achieving a 90 percent target would require halving the bloc’s livestock herd and slashing nitrogen fertilizers by 60 percent. Edenhofer blames the status quo on a lack of incentives, since the CAP “continues to provide financial support to emission-intensive agricultural practices, including livestock production.” A report from the advisory board has recommended the CAP become “better aligned” with the bloc’s climate goals: setting mandatory best practices, shifting support away from livestock production, and encouraging a less meat-heavy diet. But the EU knows it must tread cautiously: in The Netherlands, an ambitious scheme to cut livestock numbers and nitrogen emissions sparked a farmers revolt—and a populist surge at the ballot box.