Stock markets waver, crude prices edge up

Global stock markets wavered on Monday but Tokyo closed at an all-time high, while oil prices rose slightly after a decision by major crude producers to extend output cuts. Wall Street opened lower after the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs last week while European equities were mixed in afternoon deals. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stocks index closed above 40,000 points for the first time.

Tokyo is enjoying a record-run higher thanks to Wall Street rallies, robust corporate earnings and optimism over artificial intelligence, analysts said. “Japan’s stock market is also being boosted by the weak yen which is making exports cheaper and more attractive to overseas buyers,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at investment platform Trade Nation. In New York and European markets, investors waited for fresh signals on interest rates from the US and eurozone central banks later this week as well as a pre-election UK budget.

The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged again at a regular meeting on Thursday as official want to ensure inflation is on a clear downward path before they cut borrowing costs. Investors will be also looking to Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress and US job figures later this week for indications on when the US central bank might cut its own rates.

“We don’t expect the chair to stray very far from the Fed’s recent messaging—officials are in a ‘wait-and-see’ mode as there’s still a lot of ambiguity in the data,” said John Briggs, global head of desk strategy at NatWest Markets. Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong’s stock market finished flat Monday and Shanghai closed higher ahead of the start of China’s annual legislative conclave, with officials expressing concern over the nation’s struggling economy and youth unemployment. On the commodities side, the international oil benchmark, Brent crude, rose 0.3 percent to $83.79 after falling earlier in the day. The modest increase came one day after Saudi Arabia, Russia and several other OPEC+ members announced extensions to production cuts first announced in 2023.

The extension to mid-2024 is part of an agreement among oil producers to boost prices following economic uncertainty. Monday’s weak price movement was due to the fact they had already risen last week on expectations of the extension of the cuts, said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.

“There is also some conjecture that the decision to extend those cuts could be a tacit indication that demand is relatively weak,” O’Hare said. Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading platform XTB, said the average price of oil has been just over $80 in the year to date so far.

“The oil price is anchored around $80 per barrel because there is ample oil supply, even with OPEC cuts, and demand growth is set to slow, which are factors that OPEC can’t control,” Brooks said.