Markets fall after strong US data, eyes on inflation

HONG KONG: Stock markets mostly fell Monday after a forecast-busting jobs report dampened US interest rate cut hopes, with attention now turning to the release of key inflation data this week. The selling followed a retreat in all three main indexes on Wall Street, while investors lowered their expectations for how many cuts the Federal Reserve would make this year.

However, analysts said that while the jobs figures were bigger than hoped, they would not likely cause policymakers to hold off lowering borrowing costs as unemployment ticked up to a two-year high. The reading “didn’t necessarily amount to an ‘all-clear’ signal for the Fed, but there also didn’t appear to be anything in it that would derail its plan to cut rates”, said Chris Larkin of E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes added that “the US labor market seems to be in a comfortable zone—not too hot and not too cold”. “Reminiscent of Goldilocks’s ‘just right’ porridge.” Traders are now factoring in three rate cuts this year, compared with six that were penciled in three months ago. The latest reading on the consumer price index on Tuesday is now in traders’ view.

Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Wellington, Mumbai, Bangkok, Taipei and Manila were all in negative territory. London, Frankfurt and Paris opened in the red.

Japanese equities were weighed by a tech sell-off after losses for the sector in New York, while exporters also took a hit from a stronger yen as reports said the country’s central bank was considering shifting away from its ultra-loose monetary policy soon.

There was little reaction to news that the economy had narrowly avoided a recession in the final months of last year. Hong Kong and Shanghai rose, however, following figures showing a bigger-than-forecast jump in Chinese consumer prices last month, while a report said regulators had called on large banks to provide more support for troubled property developer Vanke.

The data provided some much-needed good news for the struggling economy, though observers warned it continued to face headwinds. “Recovery in domestic demand will only be gradual, as households worry about their income and job prospects amid heightened economic uncertainty while consumer confidence remains low,” said Kelvin Lam at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Therefore, it is too early to say China has emerged from consumer deflation from just one data point.” And Citigroup economists said in a note: “Much of the improvement could prove temporary rather than sustainable. —AFP