MAYBANK IB EXPECTS 5PC GROWTH IN Q1

Surprise on the upside seen

RUPA DAMODARAN

KUALA LUMPUR rupabanerji@mediaprima.com.my

MAYBANK Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) expects Malaysia’s first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) to pick up pace and grow by around 5.0 per cent from 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.

Faster growth in manufacturing production and services index, together with the pick-up in value of construction works done, have lifted the level of economic activities in the first three months of the year.

Bank Negara Malaysia governor Datuk Muhammad Ibrahim will release the data on Friday.

Maybank IB yesterday said on the basis of the supply-side indicators, Q1 real GDP growth might surprise on the upside. “Crude palm oil and palm oilrelated output rebounded sharply by 18 per cent and its high correlation with agriculture sector GDP implies the latter rebounded in the first quarter after four quarters in the red.

“The value of construction works done was up by 9.7 per cent, signalling faster growth trends in the construction sector’s GDP.”

It also noted that on the domestic demand side, consumer spending growth appeared sustained

The value of construction works done was up by 9.7 per cent, signalling faster growth trends in the construction sector’s GDP.

as per retail trade index growth at 7.8 per cent.

The surge in imports of capital goods indicate strong pick-up in real gross fixed capital formation.

“‘Flattish’ total government expenditure growth at 0.5 per cent after the fourth quarter’s -12.3 per cent suggested real public expenditure stabilised last quarter after the contractions in the third and fourth quarters,” Maybank IB added.