UK polls result hinges on young voters
LONDON: Once again, Britain’s general election has been disrupted by a deadly attack on civilians. The June 3 assault by jihadists at London Bridge and the Borough Market area has kept security issues at the fore in the final days of campaigning before today’s vote.
But the recent violence is unlikely to shift voting intentions, any more than the May 22 suicide bombing in Manchester did. Rather, it’s the surge in support among young people for the opposition Labour Party that has been shifting the polls.
When Prime Minister Theresa May called a surprise early general election on April 18, her ruling Conservative Party was so far ahead in the polls that she appeared on course for a landslide victory, reinforcing her authority in the crucial Brexit negotiations with the European Union.
But since then the gap has narrowed, to such an extent that some projections suggest May will not win an overall majority. The result will hinge on how many young people turn out to vote in an election that has exposed a stark generational divide.
Britain’s two main parties have traditionally divided along class lines, with Labour building on its working-class base and the Conservatives bolstered by their middle-class support.
But now age, even more than class, distinguishes the two parties. Pollster Ipsos MORI shows Labour outpolling the Conservatives by 30 or so percentage points among 18- to 34-year-olds, but trailing behind by a similar margin among those 55 and older.
The importance of age was already apparent in last year’s referendum on whether to leave the European Union.
The “exit” camp narrowly beat out those who wanted to remain, 52 per cent to 48 per cent. But that narrow margin disguised a chasm between young and old. According to pollster YouGov, just 29 per cent of 18- to 24-yearolds supported exit, compared with 64 per cent of those aged 65 or older. Voters under 50 backed staying in the EU, whereas 50- to 64-year-olds, as well as those 65 and older, supported leaving.
The general election is not a rerun of the referendum. For one thing, 3,303 candidates from dozens of parties are contesting 650 seats, whereas the Brexit poll was on a single issue that cut across party lines.
For another, the decision to leave the EU is now wearily accepted, even by many who voted to remain. That has stymied the hopes of the pro-European Liberal Democrats, who hoped to restore their fortunes by mobilising youthful “remain” voters with their promise of a second referendum on the outcome of the Brexit talks.
Labour, not the Liberal Democrats, is attracting younger voters in what has become a twoparty race between them and the Conservatives, outside Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Labour has made a blatant pitch for younger voters by promising the abolition of university tuition fees and a big expansion in publicly-funded childcare. The offer seems to be working, as Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn attracts admiring youthful crowds.
The prominence of generational issues in the election reflects the divergent fortunes of young and old since the 2008 financial crisis. Though jobs have been plentiful, real wages for 20year-olds have fallen. Austerity has brought cuts in working-age benefits but not to state pensions, which are protected by a “triple lock” ensuring they increase each year by the inflation rate, growth in average earnings, or 2.5 per cent — whichever is highest.
May attempted to curry favour among young voters with plans to trim state help for the old, including the replacement of the triple lock with a “double lock,” which dropped the 2.5 per cent minimum. Her most controversial idea was to get older people to pick up more of their social care bill by drawing down most of their assets, including the value of their homes — deferring payment until after they die. She was forced into a U-turn as it was dubbed a “dementia tax”.
However, most pollsters think she will win the election. The main reason is that turnout differs by age. There are not just more older people; they are also much more likely to vote. Reuters
The importance of age was already apparent in last year’s referendum on whether to leave the European Union.