U.S. SMALL-CAPS UNDER PRESSURE
The S&P 600 index has fallen 1.4pc on rising doubts that Trump can deliver on pro-business promises
NEW YORK
UNITED States. smallcap stocks, highly sensitive to the fate of President Donald Trump’s policy ambitions, may face more selling pressure, leaving small-cap investors scrambling for quality names and more resilient sectors.
Small-caps, which are more reliant on US policy and economic conditions than are large multinationals, have fallen recently on rising doubts that Trump can deliver on pro-business promises such as tax cuts.
After outperforming in late last year after Trump’s election, the S&P 600 index of smaller companies has fallen 1.4 percent this year, while the Russell 2000, which includes smaller firms, is up 1.4 per cent versus the S&P 500’s 9.2 per cent rise.
With Russell 2000 and S&P 600 multiples above historical averages, small-cap investors are carefully picking their steps.
“There’s a lot of value in smallcap land if you can look through the rubble,” said St. Denis Villere III, portfolio manager at Villere & Co in New Orleans.
Some strategists are bearish on the small-cap sector as a whole, citing a patchier earnings outlook than for multinationals as well as doubts about Trump’s agenda.
And small-cap indices, which are typically more volatile than the S&P 500, may face high volatility in coming months as US lawmakers debate controversial issues such as the debt ceiling.
Smaller companies are “much more at risk than the large and more internationally exposed companies”. said Weeden & Co chief global strategist Michael Purves, who cited concerns about the lack of a “cohesive mood” in Washington.
The S&P 600 price/earnings ratio is currently 19.7 compared with its long-term average of 17.3, while the Russell 2000 forward price to earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is 25.4 compared with its 21.3 historical average.
As a result, Jefferies equity strategist Steven DeSanctis says, the Russell 2000 could fall 10 per cent or more, bringing it below where it was before Trump’s November 8 election as valuations are high and “volatility is on the rise.”
The bearishness is sending investors to seek value in specific small-cap sectors and stocks that still look cheap but have strong growth prospects.
For example smaller financial and information technology stocks are strong value contenders while utilities and consumer staples stocks are out of favour among many investors.
“Given that the economy is better, we’re more cyclical biased. That leads us to companies from technology to industrials,” said Michael Corbett, chief investment officer at Perritt Capital Management in Chicago.
DeSanctis is bullish on the technology sector because of its exposure to strong overseas growth and he also likes financials and travel and leisure bets but is wary of retailers, real estate, utilities and materials.
Villere is wary of utilities and energy firms but likes technology and some consumer firms.
There is a divergence of performance between some individual small-cap sectors and their larger counterparts, potentially opening a value opportunity for investors.
For example, the S&P 600 financials sector is down 6.7 per cent year-to-date compared with a 6.2 per cent increase for its S&P 500 counterpart.
But the S&P 600 financial sector’s forwards P/E ratio of 15.9 is below its long-term average of 17.4 while the S&P 500 financial sector ’s multiple of 13.8 compares with a long-term average of 12.8.
In comparison, the S&P 600 utilities sector has risen 15.8 per cent so far this year and its forward P/E of 23 is well above its long-term average of 16 versus a 12.8 per cent rise for the S&P 500’s utility index, which has a P/E of 17.9 compared with its long-term average of 13.9.
Such divergences are making small-cap investors wary. Reuters