IEA ex­pects global growth es­ti­mate to in­crease to 1.6m bpd

New Straits Times - - Business -

LON­DON en­ergy poli­cies of in­dus­trial na­tions, raised its this year’s global oil de­mand growth es­ti­mate to 1.6 mil­lion bar­rels per day (bpd) from 1.5 mil­lion bpd.

“Or­gan­i­sa­tion for Eco­nomic Co-op­er­a­tion and De­vel­op­ment (OECD) de­mand growth con­tin­ues to be stronger than ex­pected, par­tic­u­larly in Europe and the US,” said the Paris-based IEA.

“Based on re­cent bets made by in­vestors, ex­pec­ta­tions are that mar­kets are tight­en­ing and that prices will rise, al­beit very mod­estly,” said the IEA.

Ro­bust de­mand in in­dus­tri­alised coun­tries was a key fac­tor be­hind global de­mand grow­ing 2.3 mil­lion bpd in the sec­ond quar­ter, the high­est quar­terly year-on-year rise since mid2015.

On the sup­ply side, global oil out­put fell 0.72 mil­lion bpd last month due to un­planned out­ages and sched­uled main­te­nance in Opec mem­ber Libya and nonOpec states such as Rus­sia, Kaza­khstan, Azer­bai­jan and Mex­ico and the North Sea.

It was the first fall in global pro­duc­tion in four months.

Opec’s crude out­put fell last month for the first time in five months on re­newed tur­moil in Libya, with its pro­duc­tion de­creas­ing by 0.21 mil­lion bpd to 32.67 mil­lion bpd.

The 12 mem­bers of Opec bound by a sup­ply-cut­ting pact raised their com­pli­ance to 82 per cent last month, from 75 per cent in July. Their com­pli­ance for the year so far was 86 per cent.

As a re­sult of out­put de­clines and stronger de­mand, global oil stocks are be­gin­ning to re­bal­ance, ac­cord­ing to the IEA.

“OECD com­mer­cial stocks were un­changed in July at 3.016 bil­lion bar­rels, when they nor­mally in­crease,” said IEA. Reuters

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