EXPLOSIVE GROWTH

MALAYSIA’S total trade may grow more than 10 per cent to RM1.6 trillion this year, given its strong performance in the first eight months, says International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed. Trade surplus has also risen to RM60.84

MALAYSIA’S total trade is likely to grow more than 10 per cent to at least RM1.6 trillion this year, beating an earlier estimate of three per cent.

Last year, the country’s trade rose 1.5 per cent to RM1.49 trillion, from RM1.46 trillion in the previous year.

“Although we expect some slight deceleration at the end of this year, partly because of the base effect, Malaysia is likely to record a total trade growth exceeding 10 per cent, given the strong performance in the first eight months,” said International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed.

He said trade surplus had also been healthy, rising to RM60.84 billion during the January-August period and he expected it to increase further.

“The first eight months of 2017 have seen unprecedented growth in Malaysia’s trade. Growth has exceeded 20 per cent every single month of the year, except for January and June.

“Last year, total trade breached the RM1 trillion mark in September but this year, total trade reached RM1 trillion in July,” said Mustapa in a statement yesterday.

He said he expected Malaysia to continue benefiting from the rise in global trade.

The country’s manufactured goods had performed well, particular electrical and electronics (E&E) products.

E&E exports amounted to RM220.56 billion in the eight months, growing 21.4 per cent over the same period last year.

“We expect the E&E sector to continue to grow, given the improvement in global semiconductor sales and strong projections from the smart devices, automotive, storage and healthcare markets,” said Mustapa.

Economists agreed that the expected growth was achievable.

Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said considering that Malaysia’s export had been growing at an average 20 per cent a month over the past eight months, the country should be able to achieve such growth.

“This is very much in line with global manufacturers’ sentiment. For instance, the United States ISM Index for manufacturing inched up to 60.8 points in September. This suggests that manufacturers have been busy producing their goods given the forthcoming demand from the customers. Therefore, the 10 per cent growth target looks pretty much achievable.”

MIDF Research chief economist Dr Kamaruddin Mohd Norsaid said with the month-onmonth momentum sustaining, even the 10 per cent growth was considered conservative.

He also maintained his 14.5 per cent exports growth target this year with upward bias.

Sunway University Business School Professor of Economics Dr Yeah Kim Leng said the expected growth was likely to be at the lower end of the 10 to 15 per cent.

This is due to the sustained global growth momentum, as reflected by the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index.