COLD RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING MEASURES
Addressing climate change problems requires collective action, but persuading countries to adopt expensive strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not an easy task, writes EDUARDO PORTER
IN 1988, when world leaders convened their first global conference on climate change in Toronto, the earth’s average temperature was a bit more than half a degree Celsius above the average of the last two decades of the 19th century, according to measurements by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa).
Global emissions of greenhouse gases amounted to the equivalent of some 30 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year — excluding those from deforestation and land use. Worried about its accumulation, the scientists and policymakers called on the world to cut CO² emissions by a fifth.
That didn’t happen, of course. By 1997, when climate diplomats from the world’s leading nations gathered to negotiate a round of emissions cuts in Kyoto, Japan, emissions had risen to some 35 billion tonnes and the global surface temperature was roughly 0.7°C above the average of the late 19th century.
It took almost two decades for the next breakthrough. When diplomats from virtually every country gathered in Paris just over two years ago to hash out another agreement to combat climate change, the world’s surface temperature was already about 1.1°C above its average at the end of the 1800s. And, greenhouse gas emissions totalled just under 50 billion tonnes.
This is not to belittle diplomacy. Maybe, this is the best we can do. How can countries be persuaded to adopt expensive strategies to drop fossil fuels when the prospective impact of climate change remains uncertain and fixing the problem requires collective action? As mitigation by an individual country will benefit all, nations will be tempted to take a free ride on the efforts of others.
And, no country will be able to solve the problem on its own.
The world is still warming. Both Nasa and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported last week that global temperatures last year receded slightly from the record-setting 2016, because there was no El Niño heating up the Pacific.
The greatest impediment to slowing this relentless warming is an illusion of progress that is allowing every country to sidestep many of the hard choices that still must be made.
“We keep doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome,” said Scott Barrett, an expert on international cooperation and coordination at Columbia University, who was once a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Climate diplomats in Paris didn’t merely reassert prior commitments to keep the world’s temperature less than 2 degrees above that of the “preindustrial” era — a somewhat fuzzy term that could be taken to mean the second half of the 19th century. Hoping to appease island nations like the Maldives, which are likely to be swallowed by a rising ocean in a few decades, they set a new “aspirational” ceiling of 1.5 degrees.
To stick to a 2 degree limit, we would have to start reducing global emissions for real within about a decade at most — and then do more. Half a century from now, we would have to figure out how to suck vast amounts of carbon out of the air. Keeping the lid at 1.5 degrees would be much harder still.
And yet, when experts tallied the offers made in Paris by all the countries in the collective effort, they concluded that greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 would exceed the level needed to remain under 2 degrees by 12 to 14 billion tons of CO².
Are there better approaches? The “climate club” proposed by Yale University economist William Nordhaus has the advantage of including an enforcement device, which current arrangements lack: Countries in the club, committed to reducing carbon emissions, would impose a tariff on imports from non-members to encourage them to join.
Martin Weitzman of Harvard University supports the idea of a uniform worldwide tax on carbon emissions, which might be easier to agree on than a panoply of national emissions cuts. One clear advantage is that countries could use their tax revenues as they saw fit.
Maybe none of this would work. The climate club could blow up if non-members retaliated against import tariffs by imposing trade barriers of their own. Coordinating taxes around the world looks at least as difficult as addressing climate change.
What definitely won’t suffice is a climate strategy built out of wishful thinking: the proposition that countries can be cajolled and prodded into increasing their ambition to cut emissions further, and that laggards can be named and shamed into falling into line.
The activists, technologists and policymakers driving the strategy against climate change seem to have concluded that the job can be done without unpalatable choices.
And, the group is closing doors that it would do best to keep open. There is no momentum for investing in carbon capture and storage, since it could be seen as condoning the continued use of fossil fuels.
Nuclear energy, the only source of low-carbon power ever deployed at the needed scale, is also anathema. Geo-engineering, like pumping aerosols into the atmosphere to reflect the sun’s heat back into space, is another taboo.
But, eventually, these options will most likely be on the table, as the consequences of climate change come more sharply into focus.
Some countries will decide to forget Paris and deploy a few jets to pump sulphur dioxide into the upper atmosphere to cool the world temporarily. There will be a race to develop techniques to harvest and store carbon from the atmosphere, and another to build nuclear generators at breakneck speed.
It will probably be too late to prevent the Maldives from ending up underwater. But, better late than never.
Martin Weitzman of Harvard
University supports the idea of a uniform worldwide tax on carbon emissions, which might be easier to agree on than a panoply of national emissions cuts.