106 TO FEATURE THREE-WAY CONTESTS
THE much-anticipated battles, most of them in Malay-majority areas, will involve Umno, Pas, PPBM, PKR and PAN. Analysts, however, say Umno has the upper hand.
ATOTAL of 106 parliamentary seats, mostly in Malay-majority areas, will see heated three-cornered contests in the 14th General Election.
Based on a study on traditionally Malaymajority seats, three Malay-dominated parties — Umno, Pas and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) — are expected to duke it out in 44 parliamentary seats, while 35 other seats will see battles between Umno, Pas and PKR. The remaining 27 seats will see contests between Umno, Pas and Parti Amanah Negara (PAN).
Umno is widely expected to go for the 121 seats it contested in the 13th General Election, and should there be any seat exchanges with Barisan Nasional component parties, it will be based on the make-up of the voter majority in the areas.
Based on the seat distribution announced by the opposition pact last month, although there had been no official announcement on seats it would contest, PPBM would most likely contest seats that are traditionally Umno strongholds. This means that out of 52 seats allocated to PPBM by the opposition pact, 45 will be in Umno areas.
Only four seats allocated to PPBM are not traditional Umno seats, but they were won by BN component parties in GE13 — Tapah (MIC), Simpang Renggam (Gerakan), Alor Gajah and Tanjung Piai (both MCA).
PPBM will also be placing its bets on Tumpat, which was a Pas seat until the defection of member of parliament Datuk Kamaruddin Jaafar to PKR.
All seats that PAN will contest are formerly Pas’. PKR also looks set to continue contesting seats it did in GE13, many of which were held by Pas before the formation of the now-defunct Barisan Alternatif and, later, Pakatan Rakyat.
PAN is eyeing the Ayer Hitam seat, which the opposition pact had decided would be DAP’s, as well as two other seats.
Pas, meanwhile, declared its aim to fight in 130 seats, nine more than what it contested in GE13. Most seats are traditional Pas strongholds before it joined Barisan Alternatif in 1999 and later Pakatan Rakyat in 2008, after which some seats were contested by PKR.
The seats include Permatang Pauh, Ketereh, Tanah Merah and Machang. Most of the seats are in Selangor, Penang and Perak.
Most of the seats Pas will challenge are Umno’s, except 11 seats. They include MCA’s Alor Star, Lumut, Pandan, Bandar Tun Razak and Ayer Hitam seats, MIC’s Kota Raja and Teluk Kemang seats, and Gerakan’s Simpang Renggam seat.
There is a possibility Pas will place candidates in four seats in Sabah (Semporna, Kalabakan, Batu Sapi and Kinabatangan) and eight in Sarawak (Limbang, Batang Sadong, Batang Lupar, Kota Samarahan, Petrajaya, Sibuti, Igan and Tanjung Manis) based on its record in GE13.
Based on GE13 results, the outcome of three-cornered fights involving Umno, Pas and PAN will most likely favour Umno, given that it had won these seats in the previous polls.
Pas’ splinter party, PAN, cannot shy away from facing Pas in GE14, as the opposition pact had allocated 27 seats belonging to Pas to the fledgling party.
Parliamentary seats held by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi are expected to see threecornered. Also, 29 seats involving parliamentary areas represented by ministers and deputy ministers are set to see three-way fights.
Opposition leader Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is widely expected to go up against two challengers, regardless of whether he chooses to return to his former stronghold of Kubang Pasu or contest in Langkawi or Putrajaya.