Kingmakers and political insurance
WHEN it comes to providing the strong economic fundamentals that are necessary in developing and future-proofing the nation, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has done it all. As a result, sustainability of our robust growth is now an indisputable reality.
There is not an inch of soil in Southeast Asia’s second-most vibrant economy that has remained untouched by his astute development sense. In the northern region, the Lembah Chuping industrial hub will create 12,500 jobs with a gross national income of RM2.58 billion by 2025. Further south, the Rapid Pengerang and Iskandar Malaysia projects stand as testimony to Najib’s efforts.
To sustain this growth — to keep foreign investment flowing in and to create more jobs — he provides connectivity in both peninsula and Borneo by implementing his mammoth transportation plan. For example, the Pan Borneo Highway — spanning 2,325km from Telok Melano to Serudong (that has been talked about since the 1970s) is now well on its way to becoming a reality by 2023.
In addition, Najib unveiled (at the launch of Barisan Nasional’s manifesto) his new commitment to upgrade some 12,500km of rural roads in Sabah and Sarawak. This is believed to be the crowning glory for the two states that have solidly supported him through the years.
Similarly, the completion of the West Coast Expressway next year will ease traffic congestion to the north, the same way that Central Spine Road will do for the eastern part of the peninsula.
Also, travelling time between the two metropolis of Kuala Lumpur and Singapore will be just under two hours thanks to the high speed railway (HSR). Meanwhile, the East Coast Rail Line (ECRL) will connect Port Klang to Pengkalan Kubor in less than 4 hours.
It does not take too much of a stretch to appreciate the economic potential and spillover effects these projects will bring.
The economic fortress that the premier has built stands rock solid despite the lacklustre world economy (one that has been growing at a sluggish pace of 3 per cent since 2012) and the ravages of plummeting oil prices that seemed to be caught in an almost interminable nose-dive.
Notwithstanding this bleak backdrop, Najib has still managed to throttle ahead with strong economic growth: the nation enviably exceeded the forecasts of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund IMF and the Asian Development Bank for five straight years from 2013 to last year.
As he prepared for the 14th General Election (GE14), Bank Negara Malaysia’s international reserves saw a spike, touching the mark of RM110 billion just two weeks after Parliament’s dissolution. Accordingly, the World Bank adjusted Malaysia’s 2018 growth forecast from 5.2 per cent to 5.4 per cent. As a result, the stock market roared (it hit an all time high of 1,895), foreign investments returned, and credit rating houses sang praises.
But the crescendo of it all was when Malaysia successfully surged ahead from an economy size of RM4 billion to one that is RM1.3 trillion today. Even so, Najib is still mulling to achieve RM2 trillion by 2022.
Malaysia, too, has managed to reduce its dependency on oil revenue, diversify its economy from one that is agriculture-based to one that is steeped in manufacturing and services, and built a digital economy that will contribute 20 per cent of gross domestic product by 2020.
But will this heady combination of development and economic achievements be enough for Najib
GE14
The biggest blemish on Najib’s remarkable economic achievement is of course the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) controversy. Prevalent on the ground, too, are concerns about the rising cost of living and the Goods and Services Tax (GST).
Leading the charge against Najib is none other than his previous mentor, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who today is acting as the prime minister designate for the opposition.
But as the heat of the election campaign begins to stifle even the most apolitical among us, Dr Mahathir is still bad news in Sabah & Sarawak (states touted as BN’s fixed deposit to form the Federal Government).
The onus to lead the opposition’s campaign in Sabah now falls squarely on Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal‘s shoulders. But should Shafie fail to undermine BN’s record of winning 22 out of 25 parliamentary seats in Sabah, his political movement will be as good as dead.
That said, whispers in the corridors of power insisted that Najib must be able to secure at least 140 seats, if he were to withstand the rigours of the Umno election due to take place later this year.
But if history ever taught Malaysians anything, the real kingmaker this election is not Dr Mahathir, 1MDB, GST or the 1Malaysia People’s Aid (BR1M). It is not about one’s economic prowess and development in terms of infrastructure.
The real kingmaker this time around is the secret tango between Umno and Pas.
When Pas broke away from the opposition pact, it placed the party in an isolated yet powerful position.
In politics, optics is everything. What is said or not said can be construed in myriad of ways. Pas’ insistence in pursuing its theocratic goal via an amendment to Act 355 is one of them. The writing on the walls became obvious after nomination day on April 28: Pas fielded its candidates in a staggering 160 parliamentary seats and 398 state seats — making it the second biggest party after BN (which has a candidate in all parliamentary and state seats).
We do not need political analysts and big data crunching to tell us that any 3-corner or multiple-cornered fight will give advantage to the incumbent. In any first-pastthe-post electoral system, this is music to BN’s ears.
BN is not leaving anything to chance after GE13. The tango with Pas serves as political insurance to the current ruling government.
In states where BN’s influence is perceived as vulnerable — like Terengganu and Kedah — it is this tango that will be pivotal to the formation of a coalition state government between BN and Pas.
In this long and arduous political rally, we tend to overlook the last two crucial deciding factors in any election: the strength of the machinery and the last 48 hours before polling day.
The strength of a party’s machinery will first ensure the base votes are secured on May 9, especially in semi-urban and rural areas. Ostensibly, when it comes to machinery on polling day, nothing comes close to the strength of Umno and Pas.
Being among the oldest political parties in the country, they have immeasurable knowledge in the book of experience. However, DAP is undoubtedly gaining momentum vis-à-vis polling day machinery after it formed state governments in Penang and Selangor since 2008. The inception of Penang Institute is proof of this contention.
The last 48 hours before polling day is equally as critical for semiurban and rural seats. Issues as small as merchandising and plays on emotion and empathy have the power to swing the vote pendulum either way.
But all said and analysed, it is almost certain that when the sun rises on May 10, Najib will remain the king of the hill.
Elviza Michele Kamal is chief executive officer of Yayasan Better Nation, a non-profit organisation based in Cyberjaya.