BN FIRMLY ON TRACK TO RETAIN POWER
There are various forecasts, but they differ only on the margin of victory
THE race for Putrajaya, as expected, is intense and somewhat unprecedented, but the wind is blowing towards the incumbent.
While some say it is hard to read the Malay mind and predict the outcome, the strong political base for Barisan Nasional appears intact.
The multiracial coalition is firmly on track to retain power, according to most predictions, but they differ on the margin of victory.
BN appeared to suffer a slight slide from its comfortable early lead following the coalition’s intrigues post-nomination day and the opposition’s latest inroads into a few Malay seats considered safe for the coalition.
The Chinese ground is still quite sour, but BN will draw strength from Sabah and Sarawak.
But BN’s popular vote may drop. This is because the Malay votes is split between BN, PH and Pas. There are sizeable numbers of three-cornered fights in Malay seats.
Pas, which is going solo this time around and being the spoiler, will help BN boost its majority in Parliament.
By convention, Umno/BN garners 45-55 per cent of the Malay votes; Pas, 25-35 per cent; and Pakatan, 15-25 per cent.
The fall guys will be the BN component parties, such as MCA, Gerakan and MIC. There is every chance Pas will make up the numbers for BN.
“We will see more Muslim MPs in Parliament,” said Rita Sim, cofounder and fellow of the think tank Centre for Strategic Engagement (Cense).
Latest missteps by opposition figure Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad over his “mati katak” remarks in relation to Memali fighters and Tun Daim Zainuddin’s comment that Sabah and Sarawak parties could easily be “bought” might cost the opposition some votes.
Daim had told the Singapore Straits Times that should BN lose its majority in Parliament to the opposition in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak will “just swing” in favour of Pakatan.
This is not to mention the latest outburst by PKR president Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail against Perak DAP chief Nga Kor Ming for a recent speech that went viral, which the latter has since apologised for.
Wan Azizah said the coalition did not appreciate the use of such harsh language on its Langkawi candidate, Dr Mahathir.
Nga, who is also the Teluk Intan parliamentary candidate, became the subject of controversy after a video posted on the Facebook page called “Gerak Perak” purportedly showed him speaking sarcastically at a ceramah about Dr Mahathir being at death’s door.
He also suggested that the late Singapore prime minister Lee Kuan Yew was tired of playing mahjong alone in the afterlife, and wanted Dr Mahathir to join him.
This election pits Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who banks on his nine-year track record as the country’s No.1 man, against his former boss, Dr Mahathir. Lim Kit Siang’s DAP is riding on Dr Mahathir and the Malay split for its survival.
Dr Mahathir’s PPBM and DAP have joined hands in a marriage of convenience to end BN’s 61year rule since Merdeka. Anwar’s party PKR is the unlikely partner in the alliance.
“Actually it is really a fight of three families, Razak, Anwar and Mahathir,” Sim said. “Like in Sejarah Melayu days.”
But the real “winners” in this election will be DAP and the Chinese, who are feeling empowered and enjoy seeing the Malays fight, she said.
But Kit Siang’s much-touted agenda to see a Dr Mahathir-led Malay tsunami may not, to his disappointment, be realised.
“Not Malay tsunami, but Malay split,” she said.
DAP had even abandoned its Rocket logo and opted for a common PKR logo during campaigning to entice the Malay ground.
But in the run-up to polling, DAP switched back to the “Rocket” for fear of losing the Chinese votes.
Will the Malays fall for DAP’s ploy? BN campaigners are at pains to counter that by stressing a vote for PKR is a vote for DAP and DAP’s anti-Malay policies.
“Can DAP be trusted to fight for the Bumiputera agenda?” asked Najib. “What will happen to UiTM and Felda in the future?”
BN is likely to strengthen its hold on Sabah and Sarawak, which are seen as the coalition’s fixed deposit.
Parti Warisan Sabah, led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, is seen as a catalyst for change in Sabah, but not necessarily the party of choice.
Hence, splinter parties will benefit from the mood of change in Sabah, especially in the Kadazandusun Murut areas, which has been simmering for some years.
Dr Mahathir, still bitter after his son, Datuk Seri Mukhriz, was dropped as Kedah menteri besar and lost in the 2013 Umno party election, had initially vowed that he “would fight his own battle” to topple Najib.
Ironically, his war with Najib has turned into a crusade to end BN’s 61-year rule of Malaysia.
He has even roped in some ministers from his era to join his cause. After living 22 years under his authoritarian rule, will Malaysians buy his story again?