ANALYSIS: BN EXPECTED TO RETAIN POWER
A record 14 million voters expected to cast ballots today
THE mother of all elections has finally arrived. A record 14.9 million registered voters will throng 8,989 polling centres to elect the government for the next five years.
A total of 222 parliamentary and 505 state seats are up for grabs in the polls, seen as the toughest for the Barisan Nasional (BN), in power since Merdeka.
Who will emerge the victor and win the hearts and minds of the people? The choice is betweeen the Umno-led BN and the opposition.
BN chief and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, facing the biggest challenge of his long political life, is set to beat the odds and lead BN to a slight win despite a resurgent opposition that includes Dr Mahathir Mohamad and DAP stalwart Lim Kit Siang.
BN insiders expect the coalition to win between 130 and 140 of the 222 parliament seats, well above the 112-simple majority threshold.
But some BN strategies are looking at a lower number of 126, given reports of a slight swing in some rural Malay-based seats.
“To me, the important thing is that the BN will prevail despite the opposition onslaught,” said one insider.
The think tank Merdeka Center expects BN to retain power.
On the eve of voting, Najib delivered three good news to Malaysians from his hometown in Pekan by declaring income tax exemption for Malaysians below the age of 26, two days of public holidays and toll-free for five days during Hari Raya Aidilfitri if BN returns to power.
His nemesis Dr Mahathir also went on air from Langkawi at the same time, telling Malaysians that they should vote instead for the opposition.
The election is somewhat unpredecented. Dr Mahathir, 93, came out of retirement to take on Najib and try to topple BN, the very party he led for 22 years, and the one that has ruled Malaysia since 1957.
He even teamed up with his sworn enemy Kit Siang of the DAP to galvanise the Malays and win power.
Another gamechanger that defined this election is the decision by Pas to part ways with PKR and DAP to go solo, resulting in the Malay vote being split three ways.
Najib’s mission is not only to ensure BN retains power at the federal level, but also that the coalition also holds on to the states under its rule, besides ensuring it wrests Selangor and Kelantan.
BN, however, is not expected to pose much of a threat to the opposition’s stranglehold of Penang.
The DAP-led opposition is contesting 191 parliamentary seats, Pas 160, and Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) is contesting 17 seats in the state.
It is undeniable that forming a new bloc and Warisan’s challenge in Sabah has made BN’s mission tougher.
This, coupled with the sentiment of Chinese voters, which does not show any signs of swaying to BN since the socalled “tsunami” of 2008.
Three-cornered fights in GE14 could hurt BN’s chances, as it would split the Malay vote, especially in areas where Pas is dominant.
All these factors are making political analysts more careful with their predictions.
It also makes Najib’s task all the more challenging compared with GE13.
Apart from Dr Mahathir, he is also facing his former deputy, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, and former Umno vice-president and cabinet minister, Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, who formed Warisan.
The opposition has capitalised on the issues of 1MDB, GST, cost of living and rising prices as its campaign fodder.
BN won 133 parliamentary seats in GE13, 15 fewer than the 148 needed to form a two-thirds majority government.
The coalition also lost two seats — Pagoh and Semporna — after Muhyiddin and Shafie were sacked and formed new parties to take on their former boss.
BN needs 112 seats to achieve a simple majority to form the government, while its intention to get 148 seats looks like an uphill battle.
The opposition’s campaign to rely on slander and false news has also exposed its true colours and put off voters.
BN is expected to win 125 parliamentary seats, with a majority to come from its fixed deposit states of Sabah and Sarawak.
Some states, like Johor, Pahang, Negri Sembilan, Melaka, Perlis, Perak, Terengganu and Kelantan, are expected to see the tide in favour of BN.
In Terengganu, Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Razif’s association with two former menteris besar, Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh and Datuk Seri Ahmad Said, is expected to favour BN after internal issues in the state Umno were resolved.
Ahmad Razif, in a recent meeting, said the issues were resolved after both leaders pledged to ensure BN perform better this time around and the state remained under the coalition control.
At the state level, Kedah, Selangor and Perak look quite shaky, although BN is expected to do better in Kelantan this time around.
In Kedah, Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir and his father’s presence is expected to give an advantage to the opposition.
Last Sunday, a former state assemblyman revealed that only 14 of the 36 state seats were in BN’s hands while an officer from Mukhriz’s camp was confident that the opposition could secure up to 20 seats, surpassing the 19 seats needed for a simple majority.
“PAS is not seen as a major threat as voters want Mukhriz returned after being ousted as menteri besar before this.
“Mahathir ’s presence is also expected to help the opposition,” he said.
In Selangor, the opposition is facing not only BN but also Pas. It is expected to get only 21 of the 56 seats, with 19 for BN and 16 expected to fall in to Pas hands.
This means none of the three parties are expected to get the 29 seats needed for a simple majority. If this happens, would Selangor end up with a coalition government?