Merdeka Center poll shows BN expected to retain power

KUALA LUMPUR: Just hours ahead of what is seen as one of the most hotly-contested elections ever in the country’s political history, the Merdeka Center for opinion research has predicted that Barisan Nasional (BN) is set to return to power.

Its survey among registered voters in the peninsula since April 28 found that the ruling coalition would, however, see a decline in popular vote.

“This election is propelled by a voters’ revolt over the Goods and Services Tax (GST), besides the rising cost of living running parallel along perceived governance shortfalls,” it said.

The top three issues of voters were economic concerns at 43 per cent, good governance (corruption ) at 21 per cent, and leadership weakness at eight per cent.

Malay voters expressed the highest concern over economic issues (46 per cent), followed by good governance (17 per cent). Chinese voters placed almost equal emphasis on economic (37 per cent) and corruption issues (35 per cent). Indian voters also held a high level of concern for economic issues (43 per cent) and placed the need for better treatment towards the community at 15 per cent.

According to age group, young voters (those below 40 years old) emphasised good governance and leadership, while those above 40 expressed slightly higher concern over communal rights.

Barisan Nasional was expected to garner 37.3 per cent of the popular vote, while the opposition pact was 43.4 per cent and Pas at just 19.3 per cent.

However, BN retained a sizable seat advantage. The survey estimated that there were 100 safe seats for BN, 83 for the opposition coalition and just two for Pas, with 37 marginal seats.

The Merdeka Center predicted that due to Pas’ ability to retain at least one quarter of the Malay vote, it was anticipated that BN would prevail in the election.

“The high number of marginal seats (37), implies that voter turnout will be a critical factor in determining the outcome of many seats on election day,” it said in a statement yesterday.

A total of 1,579 registered voters in 70 marginal seats in Peninsular Malaysia were interviewed by telephone.