Rising hope for North Korea’s reform pathway

As part of these discussions to strengthen bilateral cooperation, Moon and Putin explored potential that may come from the decision of Kim and Moon to link roads and railways along the western and eastern corridors of the Korean peninsula. In coming years, the roads and railways would be extended to China and Russia opening up new opportunities into these important political and economic frontiers.

Kim’s trip was thus only the latest sign of the geopolitical flux in the region this year with hopes rising that North Korea is committed to a reform pathway. While that is by no means certain, given the uncertainty over the ambiguous pledges to “denuclearise” in the Singapore agreement, the turnaround in spiralling tensions on the peninsula since late 2017 has nonetheless been as potentially important as it was unexpected.

Yet, while there are currently very positive atmospherics around the various diplomatic dialogues with Kim, all sides know there are significant downside risks as well as opportunities in play. This includes the possibility of tensions rising again on the peninsula in 2018 or beyond if the US-Koreas peace dialogue breaks down.

While Trump appears keen to have a sustained strategic dialogue with Kim, both of these two leaders’ personal and political volatility cannot be underestimated. And if Kim ultimately reneges on any key pledges in the US president’s eyes, the political pressure will be on Trump again to ratchet up his position against Pyongyang, despite the warm words of recent weeks.

Despite the successful diplomacy of recent weeks, Trump remains under political pressure in the United States on this issue having drawn a political ‘red line’ as president over Pyongyang having nuclear weapons capable of striking the US homeland. And here he is well aware from last year’s missile tests that Kim now is close to developing a nuclear warhead capable of being fitted on to an intercontinental ballistic missile that can strike the US mainland.

Taken overall, Moon’s trip and the wider grand diplomacy on the peninsula involving Washington, Beijing and Moscow following the Singapore summit underlines that the geopolitical tectonic plates are speeding up in the Korean peninsula. However, while historic change could be in the air, significant downside risks remain if the North-South dialogue ultimately proves a mirage; the warming of relationships under way could yet go into reverse.

The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics