INDIA-U.S. TIES HIT NEW LOW
Trump’s measures have collided with Modi’s, and now India is talking to Iran and getting cozy with Russia and China
JULY-August is that time of the year when educational institutions in the United States observe vacation, when thousands, among them first and second generation achievers, travel to India to meet their relatives.
There is no “homecoming” and no “feel good” this year for an estimated 70,000.They dread being stranded, standing in long queues at the US Consulates in Indian cities. Reports indicate that airlines and travel agencies managing this huge seasonal India-America traffic are in a fix.
The potential holiday-makers have valid visas that they must renew periodically while in India since they have not received the coveted the green card. To acquire it, some had gone to war in Iraq and now, a group wants to help build the controversial wall along the US-Mexico border.
Indians have already seen problems over H-1B visas. Young, including children of those living for long are being separated from their parents. That people from other countries living in the US are also facing similar hardships, and, humiliation is no consolation. That President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet frequently and vibe well does not help. Not even that rare, never-before fact that a businessman-POTUS has lucrative businesses in India. This is but one episode in complex ties between the “greatest” and “largest” democracies that, despite problems, are mutually welcome.
There isn’t a family this writer knows who doesn’t have at least one member studying/living/working in the US. For graduates of India’s elite knowledge institutions (their education subsidised by Indian taxpayer, but lost to India) the love of greenbacks and greener pasture is enduring. But, they realise that conditions in Trump’s America and Brexit-hit Britain are not cozy. They are shifting gears. The Gulf boom is ebbing and fewer Indians are going as per the latest figures. More Indians are moving to Australia, Canada and to the Netherlands where English language, expertise in information technology and the ability to launch job-generating businesses and start-ups are welcome. Even Africa’s farmlands have welcomed them.
Their task, however, is difficult. The world is increasingly resisting Indian tech workers whose hard work for frugal salaries has become a legend. It’s a bit of a stretch to see them as the new imperialists, but they do evoke fear in the West. There is also a seamy side to it all in the shape of those who enter or stay on illegally. In Britain, their numbers vary between 75,000 and 100,000, the largest for any single nationality in the UK.
Between 2009 and 2014, as per Pew estimates, the number of unauthorised Indian immigrants in the US surged by 43 per cent to a total of around 500,000. There can be no excuse and no defence.
But, Delhi is now economically resilient. Modi has refused to sign a pact with Britain on illegal immigrants arguing with Theresa May that many of them have misused British freedom to abuse India. To return to the Indo-US ties, moving away from the Cold War era mistrust, they have blossomed in the last 18 years. Yesterday’s “ally of the Soviets” is now the US’ “strategic partner” with access to much that was denied to it under the American laws. But, there is no escape from America’s list of friends and foes — particularly the latter whose list is growing. Damning “strategic” partnership, Trump’s America seeks to dictate terms to India on not buying oil from Iran and missiles from Russia.
Trump’s global “trade war” stipulates ‘reciprocal’ tariffs with an India, whose per capita income is an eighth of the American average. In retaliation, India recently raised tariffs several times, a rare occurrence since it began liberalising its economy three decades ago.
In part, the Indian response is symbolic, though, like the hike on the Harley Davidson bike. Only a few hundred have entered, or are likely to enter, the vast Indian market.
In a world brazenly practicing protectionism, with the kettle calling the pot black, Trump’s measures have collided with Modi’s on protectionism called “Make in India”. Both today stand in a world moving away from multilateralism to bilateralism in trade and foreign policy.
The security scene is more daunting. Two security blocks are forming with the US, Japan and a poorer NATO on one side and a rich China and Russia and Pakistan and nuclear North Korea on the other. India wants to be in both camps exercising its Strategic Autonomy. The snub on Iran, incidentally, was delivered by the highest level Indian origin official in the Trump administration, Niki Haley, US’ envoy to the United Nations.
This has brought the ties to a new low. Again, it doesn’t matter that the US has the same stick to beat many others. The first Indo-US “two-plus two” dialogue among top foreign office and defence honchos is postponed. Retired diplomats and academics are asking whether this “strategic partnership” is worth it and some have suggested that India return to the path of non-alignment that it has gradually and surreptitiously abandoned in the last two decades.
On the US sanctions, India has no choice but to come out openly and make its stand clear. Otherwise, it will stand out as pariah in the world community. Actually, it can take a stand — and this is to be expected of Modi’s “nationalist” government. Don’t forget, Modi is preparing to seek a fresh mandate in a few months.
Unsurprisingly, India is talking to Iran and is getting cozy with Russia and China. Army Chief, General Bipin Rawat, has said India should not, and would not, slacken on Russian weaponry. Rather than be obliged to join the countries opposing the US decisions reluctantly, New Delhi could take the lead and convey to the US without fanfare that India would not be in a position to go along, be it weapons from Russia or oil from Iran. Period.
If India bells the cat, others may follow. Unilateral sanctions regime may become untenable or unenforceable. That may preserve the rules-based global order.
The security scene is more daunting. Two security blocks are forming with the US, Japan and a poorer NATO on one side and a rich China and Russia and Pakistan and nuclear North Korea on the other. India wants to be in both camps exercising its Strategic Autonomy.