U.S. WARY OF A DECLARATION TO END KOREAN WAR?
After the Singapore summit, the US and North Korea said Pyongyang had committed to work towards complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, but the two sides didn’t agree on the definition of denuclearisation, writes
AS a reward for its broader foray into diplomacy, North Korea wants a formal and official declared end to the decades-long Korean War that settled into an uneasy truce in 1953. South Korea wants this, too.
But, the United States, which first sent military forces to the Korean Peninsula in 1950 and still keeps 28,500 troops there, is not ready to agree to a peace declaration.
No doubt the issue will be high on the agenda when the leaders of the two Koreas hold their third summit next month, in Pyongyang. Both want the end of the war to be declared this year with the US and, possibly, China. And, North Korea insists on securing the declaration before moving forward with denuclearisation.
But, there is a range of reasons US officials have refused so far to embrace a formal peace declaration. The Trump administration wants North Korea to first halt its nuclear weapons programme — a tough line that could create a divergence between the US and South Korea, its ally.
In turn, analysts said, that gives an opening to North Korea — and maybe China and Russia — to exploit the gap between Washington and Seoul.
“You have South Korea moving so quickly on these projects to push for reconciliation with North Korea, and in Washington you have people pushing for denuclearisation before anything else happens,” said Jean H. Lee, director of the Wilson Centre’s centre for Korean history and public policy. “They have very different end games and very different time frames. It’s very problematic.”
First, the US wants proof of Pyongyang’s efforts to denuclearise.
The Trump administration, like those of Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, is focused on North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme above all else. That’s in large part because North Korea has been developing an intercontinental ballistic missile that would give Pyongyang the ability to strike the US mainland with a nuclear warhead.
In a joint statement released after the Singapore summit meeting in June, the US and North Korea said Pyongyang “commits to work toward complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula”.
But, the two sides didn’t agree on the definition of denuclearisation.
For President Donald Trump’s top foreign policy officials — Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, and John R. Bolton, the national security adviser — denuclearisation means North Korea halting and dismantling its nuclear weapons programme.
Bolton said last week that North Korea had not taken steps necessary for denuclearisation, a process that US officials have said should include turning over a list of Pyongyang’s atomic weapons stockpiles, nuclear production facilities and missiles.
North Korea has not agreed to do so and, according to Pompeo, is still producing fissile material at plants. Separately, US intelligence officials have concluded that North Korea is continuing to make long-range missiles at a site north of Pyongyang, according to news reports.
South Korea wants the US to give Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, something significant — ideally an end-of-war declaration — to build domestic political will for denuclearisation.
South Korean officials also have noted that North Korea is focused on the order of points made in the joint statement from Singapore. The commitment to denuclearisation was third, while the first and second points called on the United States and North Korea to establish new relations and to build “a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula”.
For the North Koreans, that means prioritising an end-of-war declaration and peace treaty, analysts said.
Joseph Y. Yun, the former senior diplomat on North Korea at the State Department, said in an interview that Washington and Pyongyang could try for a “declaration-for-declaration” agreement: North Korea would declare its nuclear assets in exchange for the United States supporting a declaration to end the Korean War.
The two Koreas want a declaration by this fall — way too soon for the US.
For the declaration, the two Korean governments are working on a year’s end deadline at the latest, but ideally by Sept 18, the start of the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York. It is widely believed that UN officials might invite Jong-un to attend the assembly and deliver a speech.
The Koreas had originally considered putting together an endof-war declaration in July, but that did not happen.
Given their skepticism over North Korea’s commitment to denuclearisation, US officials said the timeline was much too fast.
As always, the wild card is Trump. He insisted that the Singapore summit be held in June, even though US officials wanted more time to prepare.
Trump might aim for a similar foreign policy extravaganza in the fall, timed to the UN assembly and before the crucial November midterm elections in the US.
US officials worry a peace declaration could dilute the US military in Asia.
Although a peace declaration is not the same as a binding peace treaty, it would start the process for one. That would mean talking about how many US troops are needed in South Korea. Before the Singapore meeting, Trump ordered the Pentagon to prepare options for drawing down the troops there.
For some US officials, the troop presence in South Korea is not just a deterrent toward North Korea. It also helps the United States maintain a military footprint in Asia and a grand strategy of US hegemony.
China has begun challenging the US military presence in Asia, which will only be reinforced as China becomes the world’s biggest economy and modernises its military.
The officials also worry that President Moon Jae-in of South Korea might try to push for a lesser US military presence, or a weakening of the alliance, after an end-of-war declaration.
“For the United States, an endof-war declaration or a peace declaration or a peace treaty has always had a broader context,” Yun said.
For President Donald Trump’s top foreign policy officials — Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, and John R.
Bolton, the national security adviser — denuclearisation means North Korea halting and dismantling its nuclear weapons programme.