MAGICAL MARK

Sub-two hour marathon in 2032, study says

AN elusive sub-two hour marathon will finally be run in 2032, but women are unlikely to ever breach the magical mark, according to modelling released by scientists yesterday.

The 42.195 kilometres race was one of the original Olympic events in 1896, and runners have been edging closer to the hallowed 120 minutes ever since.

But a new statistical model based on male and female marathon world record progressions suggest there is still some time to go before anyone achieves the feat.

Research, led by Simon Angus from Melbourne’s Monash University and published in the American College of Sports Medicine’s flagship journal, forecasts the first sub-two hour marathon will likely be run by a man in May 2032.

The modelling also estimates 1:58.05 as the fastest any human will ever be able to run the distance, while the chance of a woman cracking two hours was put at less than one in 100. The quickest all-time female marathon time was estimated to be 2:05.31.

Kenya’s Eliud Kipchoge holds the current IAAF (International Association of Athletics Federations) men’s record — 2:01.39 — set in September last year at Berlin.

The world governing body recognises two marks for women — Briton Paula Radcliffe’s 2:15.25 from 2003 in London, where male and females competed, and the 2:17:01 by Kenya’s Mary Keitany in 2017 at a London race for women only.

“In other words, if an IAAF marathon were run in May 2032, then I would predict that there is a 10 percent chance that a runner in that event will break the twohour mark,” said Angus, an economics professor and ultramarathon runner.

“By inspecting the prediction lines on my economic model, there was only a two percent chance that the sub-two hour record would be broken at that point in time,” he added, referring to Kipchoge’s recent record run.

Angus added that while a subtwo hour run could occur any time between now and May 2032 “the likelihood (according to the modelling) of that occurring is extremely rare.”