SURPRISE IN INDONESIA’S ELECTION?
Jokowi’s electoral prospects are looking less secure
prime minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak. Yet for those who understand the dynamics of Indonesia’s presidential race, a Subianto victory would come as less of a surprise. It would also be a harbinger of better days for Indonesia, in particular its democracy, and it would — similar to what is now happening under Dr Mahathir’s leadership — signal the beginning of a sober reassessment of Indonesia-China relations.
The possibility of Jokowi losing rests on several factors, but the main reason is, very simply, the state of the economy. Middleclass Indonesians are disenchanted, in particular, because of the rising costs of living and a lacklustre job market. Farmers, too, have their own grievances due to low commodity prices. Many voters also remember Jokowi’s promises from the last election in 2014, many of which he has failed to keep.
One of its was to grow the economy at an annual clip of seven per cent, not an unreasonable target for an emerging market such as Indonesia. But growth hovered only around five per cent. If one were to ask the average Indonesian whether they feel better off today than five years ago, most would say “no” or “about the same”.
Beyond the economics, the growing desire for change has been buttressed even further by Jokowi’s illiberal style of politics. When he was first voted into office, most Indonesians believed Jokowi, like his predecessors, would uphold democratic norms. Unfortunately, he went off in the opposite direction. Using his ruling coalition’s control and influence over the legislature, legal system and security forces, Jokowi and his men have “criminalised” or “harassed” opposition politicians and activists critical of his presidency. National figures, including musicians, actors and even the sister of former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, have been demonised. In some high-profile cases even jailed for their dissent.
Not surprisingly, Jokowi’s authoritarian turn has prompted some Indonesians to grant his administration the moniker “Neo New Order”, a play on words of the former Suharto regime’s repressive New Order that ended 20 years ago. His behaviour also has real consequences, mainly on his electability. Indonesians who once favoured him because of his gentle, Javanese persona now see him in an entirely different light.
Should Jokowi lose next month’s election, where would that leave Indonesia?