‘CHINA SLOWDOWN TOP RISK’
One-third of investors polled say country’s weakening growth the biggest concern, replacing trade war concerns
ASLOWDOWN in China’s economy — not the trade war — is now the biggest risk for investors for the first time in almost two years, according to the latest fund manager survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
About a third of investors polled said slower growth in China was their biggest concern, replacing trade war risks which had topped the list for nine straight months, according to a survey of 186 fund managers conducted this month by the bank.
A corporate credit crunch came in third, followed by United States politics.
Stock markets globally have been roiled by ongoing concerns surrounding the US-China trade war for over a year.
While both these worries are interconnected, markets have been relatively unreactive towards newsflow on trade discussions compared with global economic growth.
Two weeks ago, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index suffered its biggest slump this year as China and the European Central Bank cut growth forecasts and the US reported weak export data.
Fast-forward to today, the regional benchmark index was a mere 0.3 per cent lower after US negotiators were said to be concerned that China was pushing back against American demands in trade talks.
The survey found that equity allocation had fallen three percentage points month-on-month to three per cent net overweight, the lowest since September 2016, despite a 12 per cent gain in global stocks in the year so far.
Elsewhere, the survey showed that shorting European equities was seen as the most crowded global cross-asset trade.
“The pain trade for stocks is still up,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at the bank.
“Despite rising profit expectations, lower rate expectations and falling cash levels, stock allocations continue to drop.”