Export growth may moderate to 3.6pc

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s export growth is expected to moderate to 3.6 per cent this year from 6.7 per cent last year, say analysts.

This would be amid higher base effects and continuous signs of easing in key global economic indicators, they added.

The moderating pace would be consistent with global commodity prices, expectations of a slight slowdown in overall business performance and on top of the uncertainty about the China-United States trade conflict, said MIDF Research in a note yesterday.

Malaysia’s trade declined 7.2 per cent in February to RM122.15 billion from RM130.94 billion recorded in the same month a year ago, according to the International Trade and Industry Ministry.

The decline was attributed to lower trade with China, Asean, European Union, Switzerland, Hong Kong, India, South Korea and the US.

Trade was higher with Saudi Arabia, Australia, Taiwan and New Zealand.

Exports for the month decreased 5.3 per cent yearon-year (y-o-y) to RM66.6 billion and imports contracted 9.4 per cent to RM55.54 billion.

This led to a larger trade surplus of RM11.06 billion, 22.7 per cent higher than in February last year.

The ministry said this also marked the 256th consecutive month of trade surplus since November 1997.

On a month-on-month basis, total trade, exports, imports and trade surplus decreased 23.3, 22, 24.8 and 3.9 per cent, respectively.

The ministry said this was a common trend for February as the month had a shorter working period amid the Chinese New Year holidays.

In the first two months of this year, total trade eased 2.2 per cent to RM281.43 billion, while exports and imports totalled RM152 billion and RM129.43 billion, respectively.

Trade surplus grew 20.8 per cent to RM22.58 billion for the period.