‘ALLIES TRYING TO OUTWIT EACH OTHER’
Conflict between BN, PN in attempt to wrest Sabah from Warisan Plus is still apparent, say experts
WILL the cooperation between Barisan Nasional ( BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) under the newly-formed Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) in the state election prove to be a masterstroke? Or will it only cause greater disunity among the two political alliances?
Experts believe that while the union is necessary in order to mount a serious challenge to retake Sabah, another battle is brewing within the alliance to jostle for overall supremacy.
They also believe that the outcome of this “battle” between allies will eventually determine the shape and course of the upcoming 15th General Election.
Geostrategy and political expert Azmi Hassan said as the campaign period for the Sabah snap polls entered its eighth day yesterday, the conflict between BN and PN in their attempt to wrest the state from Warisan Plus is still apparent.
Acknowledging that the collaboration is a “masterstroke”, he nevertheless described it as an ongoing attempt by PN and BN to outwit each other to ultimately determine the overall winner and the next Sabah chief minister.
“The strategy includes these two entities supporting independent candidates that are contesting either against PN or BN.”
He was referring to reports that while PN said it had not approached any independent candidates for support, some have nevertheless used the alliance’s banners in their campaign.
Fifty-six independent candidates, including breakaway leaders, are among the 447 candidates contesting the state election. Polling will take place on Saturday.
International relations and political expert Dr Oh Ei Sun said the arrangement was the most pragmatic that could be rolled out under the fragmented political circumstances.
“Intense intramural competitions are seen between Umno and
Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), as well as among the Kadazandusun Murut (KDM) component parties.
“The disunity and infighting will continue until Umno gains ultimate supremacy over Bersatu, and until a clearly leading KDM party emerges,” said Oh, a Sabahan and senior fellow with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
Azmi agreed with the notion that for BN and PN, the outcome of the Sabah election would be used to gauge public support in GE15.
“No doubt this kind of implicit competition will be used once again in GE15. Both PN and BN will take stock of what has taken place (during the election) in Sabah.
“The Sabah barometer — the cooperation plus implicit competition — will no doubt affect the seat allocation among parties under BN and PN come GE15.
“I am also sure that the results of the state election will awaken both PN and BN that this kind of political behaviour will benefit no one.
“And from this lesson, negotiations on GE15 seat allocations
will be conducted in a more gentlemanly manner. The fiasco that is taking place in Sabah will benefit both PN and BN in winning GE15,” he said.
In contrast, Oh reckoned that the outcome of the Sabah election will serve only as a “partial” barometer for both BN and PN in GE15.
He said issues and sentiments in Sabah were distinct and may or may not resonate with the aspirations of Sarawakians and those in the peninsula.
“The leading opposing party is Warisan Plus, with PKR and DAP playing only supplementary roles unlike in the peninsula, where these two parties would play leading roles.
“Having said that, a win or loss for BN-PN would add to or detract from their momentum in the next GE,” he said.
Associate Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya said although there was less than a week to go until voting, it was still too soon to decide which side was leading.
Awang Azman said public sentiment could change about three to four days before voting since campaigns by both GRS and
Warisan Plus candidates were expected to intensify.
“GRS is expected to face a daunting task in the state polls, especially where there are clashes among parties under the same political partnership,” he said, referring to BN contesting against PN and Parti Bersatu Sabah in 17 of the 73 state seats.
“Even in constituencies where Umno or Bersatu do not clash, there could still be a backlash from allied supporters over their own candidates not being selected.
“This, if left unchecked, spells trouble for both BN and PN since it will result in split votes and provide the upper hand to their rivals,” he said.
However, Awang Azman cautioned that GRS’ internal competition does not translate to an automatic win for Warisan Plus, which is supposedly seen as a more “stable” political coalition.
Parties under the Warisan Plus fold, he said, had recently been marred by tension between PKR and DAP.
“It appears that Warisan Plus may also be a fragile coalition after all,” he said, referring to DAP’s reiteration of support for Parti
Warisan Sabah (Warisan) president and caretaker Sabah chief minister Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal as the alternative prime ministerial candidate for Pakatan Harapan.
DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng was quoted as saying that Shafie should be given the chance and due respect to become the first PM from East Malaysia if PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was unable to “have the numbers”.
Lim’s statement triggered uneasy reactions from Permatang Pauh member of parliament Nurul Izzah Anwar.
“The focus should be given to the Sabah state election instead of racing against the spirit of solidarity,” the PKR MP said in a Twitter posting.
Awang Azman also noted that Warisan Plus’ campaign strategy of focusing on party-hopping assemblymen within GRS and labelling them as “political frogs”, might end up backfiring.
“The strategy could come back to haunt them since the previous state government, led by Warisan, was also made up of state assemblymen who had switched allegiances,” he said.