RETURN OF DMK ALLIANCE IN TAMIL NADU?
No matter the state polls’ results, duopoly of AIADMK and DMK will remain deeply entrenched
FAMED for its Dravidianstyle Hindu temples, Tamil Nadu is likely to usher in a political scion to helm the southern Indian state following its recent state polls.
Dravida Munnetra Kazham’s (DMK) likely victory in the April 6 state polls will see party leader Chief Minister-designate M.K. Stalin lead the state for the first time after decades in the shadow of his father, M. Karunanidhi, who died in 2018.
Karunanidhi, a prolific Tamil writer par excellence and movie scriptwriter, held the Tamil Nadu chief minister post five times between 1969 and 2011.
Stalin, 68, a former Chennai mayor, leads a 13 parties strong Secular Progressive Alliance that includes the Indian National Congress (Congress) and left leaning parties in the single-phase polls on April 5.
Tamil daily Dinamalar said though the DMK underplayed its confidence in winning a majority to take power in the state, low voter turnout, specifically where the party’s candidates were fielded, has caused concern.
The Tamil Nadu State Assembly has 234 seats and winning 118 makes a simple majority. In the fray are 3,994 candidates.
Several opinion polls in the run up to the state election forecasted that DMK would take the state.
A Times Now-C Voter poll gave DMK 158 out of 234 seats against 65 for the alliance between All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazham (AIADMK) and Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). In 2016, the incumbent AIADMK won 136 seats.
APT Research Group’s poll for the Puthiya Thalaimurai Tamil TV channel predicted a clear mandate for DMK, forecasting that it would garner 151 to 158 seats in the unicameral chamber compared with the AIADMK’s 76 to 83 seats.
Newslaundary.com said opinion polls predicted a sweeping victory for the DMK-led alliance, propelled by a Dravidian, pro-autonomy, federalism plank against the BJP’s push for single-party rule in the country.
The Hindustan Times said all indications show that the state polls was DMK’s to lose.
“After all, the DMK-led alliance swept the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha (lower house of Parliament) elections, winning 38 of the 39 seats in the state. If the DMK ends up losing this, it is Stalin who will pay the biggest cost for the loss,” said the English language daily
DMK’s nemesis, AIADMK, is seeking to extend its rule for a third straight term, led by Eddapadi K. Palaniswami, who was dubbed the “accidental chief minister” after he took over the post following the death of his predecessor, J. Jayalalithaa.
This is also the first polls for AIADMK without charismatic movie star-turned-politician Jayalalithaa, who died in 2018. She held the chief minister post four times between 1991 and 2016.
AIADMK, which leads the 10 parties strong National Democratic Alliance, including the BJP, in the polls is said to face a tough prospect in retaining the state government for a third term.
According to newslaundary.com, AIADMK has struggled for support, not least with minority communities as its allies, as the BJPled union government is expected to implement the new citizenship law, which the AIADMK opposes.
“The AIADMK, thus, is in danger of falling between two boats as it seeks to maintain its Dravidian identity while ideologically pulling in the direction of the BJP,” said the Indian media watchdog.
Meanwhile, BJP and Congress might see an improvement in this year’s polls. News outlet NDTV attributes this to both parties for their hard work on the campaign trail, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah on one side, and Rahul Gandhi on the other.
In 2011 and 2016, BJP failed to win a seat in the Tamil Nadu State Assembly. Congress did a little better, winning five and eight seats in those polls.
Other parties that are likely to crash the political party in Tamil Nadu is Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazagam of TTV Dhinakaran, which could draw some of the AIADMK votes, and Naam Tamilar Katchi of Seeman, a Tamil nationalist party, as well as actorturned-politician Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam. These parties are expected to spring some surprises.
However, Scroll.in said the duopoly of AIADMK and DMK, which have been ruling the southern Indian state since 1967, remains deeply entrenched, with no real challenger on the horizon.
The Indian Election Commission said polls results for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry, Assam and West Bengal would be announced on May 2, with elections being held in several phases in some of the states and concluding after eight phases on April 29 in West Bengal.