The unmanned arms race
CAPABLE of breaching even the most highly protected airspace, the United States Air Force’s new B-21 bomber is arguably the most advanced warplane on earth.
But by the time the last of its initial order of 100 comes off the production line in the 2030s, the Pentagon believes it may already be outdated.
Speaking to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday, US Air Force Chief of Staff David Allvin said the B-21 “Raider” remained the “future of the bomber force” but by the mid-2030s he expected other technological advancements that the Pentagon would need to understand “before we commit to that as being the platform… beyond that”.
With great power rivalry rising and new generations of drones and missiles now entering service every year, the B-21 is not the only cutting-edge weapons system that risks being outpaced by developments elsewhere.
In February, the US Army announced it was abandoning its Future Army and Reconnaissance Aircraft initiative aimed at delivering a new scout helicopter despite having already spent US$2 billion on it, saying the requirement would likely be met by drones following a “sober assessment of the modern battlefield”.
According to the Wall Street Journal last month, the US Air Force intends to have as many as 1,000 unmanned, artificial intelligence-equipped “wingmen” fighter jets in service over the next five years operating alongside its manned aircraft, primarily the fifth generation F-35.
This will allow a pilot to lead a small group of unmanned aircraft, expected to cost around a third of a manned jet with additional savings on pilot training costs.
Keeping both new drones and existing aircraft sophisticated enough to survive in the fastmoving battle spaces of the 2020s, however, is becoming increasingly challenging.
Last weekend’s Iranian drone and missile assault on Israel showed how effective cuttingedge defences can be at stopping attackers from getting through.
On the battlefields of Ukraine, meanwhile, systems seen as cutting-edge war winners at the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022 — such as the Turkish-built Bayraktar attack drone — have often been rendered obsolete by more sophisticated defences on both sides.
According to British army chief General Patrick Sanders at a discussion at US think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies, during one recent Ukrainian offensive as many as 80 per cent of drones used by the Kyiv government were lost in action, largely because of improved Russian electronic warfare.
On both sides, the Ukraine conflict has repeatedly shown the vulnerability of some critical infrastructure — such as power plants, oil refineries and airbases — to attack.
They have also shown the effectiveness of air-launched cruise missiles, which can be fired from within a country’s airspace against a neighbour and where new variants can be relatively easily upgraded to keep pace with technology.
Paradoxically, that can give new life to very much older aircraft.
The United States intends to keep its B-52 fleet operating well after a century after their first flights in the 1950s, while Russia continues to rely heavily on its ageing propeller-driven Bear bombers, both of which can launch long-range cruise missiles and could be adapted to carry more sophisticated drones.
Building those in enormous numbers may increasingly be key to victory.