PublicInvest: Outlook bright with trade improving
Malaysia’s trade is expected to improve this year, in line with anticipated improvements in global economy and buoyed by brighter prospects in exports of electronic products.
Public Investment Bank Bhd (PublicInvest) has projected a potential rebound in Malaysia’s goods and services exports by 5.4 per cent this year.
“There is an optimistic outlook for the current year, underpinned by anticipated improvements in global trade dynamics alongside brighter prospects in electronics exports amid the resurgence of the tech cycle.
“As a result, our projections suggest a potential rebound in Malaysia’s goods and services exports by 5.4 per cent in 2024, complemented by a growth rate of 6.8 per cent in imports.
“However, these forecasts remain contingent upon the trajectory of global economic conditions, with the possibility of revisions should external circumstances deteriorate,” it said.
Malaysia’s export trajectory persisted in the negative domain last month, reflecting a year-on-year contraction of 0.8 per cent, mirroring the downturn in February and in tandem with the decline in re-exports.
However, domestic exports remained positive despite uncertainties in commodity prices during that period.
Gross imports continued to grow positively, up 12.5 per cent year-onyear last month (eight per cent in February).
The country’s trade surplus also edged higher to RM12.8 billion last month from RM11.2 billion in February.
“The Asean region’s vulnerability to the economic performance of key players such as the United States, China, and the European Union introduces notable risks to its trade dynamics.” it said.
In a separate note, Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB Research) said trade activity was expected to recover this year, aided by low base effect, recovery in global technology sector and higher commodity prices.
“This is expected to benefit Malaysia as the country is an exporter of both commodity and electrical and electronics sectors.
“Nevertheless, an escalation of geopolitical tensions continue to pose downside risks, as supply chain disruptions and renewed price pressures could weigh on demand and trade flows,” it added.