Japan February exports seen rising at fastest pace since 2015
TOKYO: Japan’s exports probably rose at the fastest pace in two years in February thanks to a softer yen and improving global demand, a Reuters poll showed yesterday.
But uncertainty over possible trade protectionist moves by the US is still clouding recovery prospects for the world’s thirdlargest economy.
Exports are expected have jumped 10.6 per cent in February from a year earlier, which would be the biggest gain since January 2015 when they rose 16.9 per cent.
The number were likely flattered by a rebound in Asian demand, after Japan’s shipments slowed in January due to the long Lunar New Year holidays in China and other parts of the region. Shipments had edged up 1.3 per cent in January.
Imports likely rose 0.6 per cent from a year earlier, slowing sharply from growth of 8.5 per cent in January, which marked their first increase in two years.
That is expected to produce a trade surplus of 822 billion yen (US$7.25 billion), compared with a deficit of nearly 1.09 trillion yen in January, the poll of 20 analysts showed.
“You need to average out exports in January and February to assess the trend considering the impact from the Lunar New Year holidays,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Research Institute.
“Still, there is a chance that an average of exports in January and February surpassed that of October to December. And data next week will be something to confirm exports stayed on a recovery trend as the manufacturing sector is picking up globally.”
Japan’s trade surplus with the US has been declining. But if it starts rising again, it could become a flashpoint after President Donald Trump singled out Japan, China and Germany for their high exports into the US market.
In April, Japan and the US will start a high-level economic dialogue chaired by Finance Minister Taro Aso, who also serves as deputy prime minister, and Vice President Mike Pence.
Japan hopes to use the dialogue to seek ways to avoid trade frictions on issues like autos and agriculture sectors by proposing an agenda focussed on infrastructure investment and energy.
Japan’s long-stagnant economy has shown signs of life in recent months, with exports and factory output benefitting from a global economic recovery. But consumer spending has remained sluggish. — Reuters