Uphill battle for PPBM to beat Umno — poll

KUALA LUMPUR: It will be an uphill battle for Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) in the 14th general election (GE14).

Politweet predicted in a study titled ‘Election Forecast for Pakatan Harapan (PH) in Peninsular Malaysia (GE14) that the challenge for PPBM is made tougher by probable threecorner fights with PAS.

The political social media research firm found that due to PPBM’s seat allocation in Umno strongholds, there was a slim chance for Umno’s latest rival, another Malay-only party, to take home more than a few seats.

“PPBM is contesting rural, Malay-majority seats that would be challenging to win in a straight fight against BN (Barisan Nasional). 35/52 seats were contested by PAS in GE13, which means PPBM will face an even greater challenge in a three-corner fight with PAS,” the report predicted.

Earlier this month, PH announced its seat allocations for GE14 with PPBM contesting 52 seats, PKR 51 seats, DAP 35 seats and Amanah 27 seats. PPBM was set on taking Umno at its home turf - the rural Malay heartland.

A PAS leader reportedly said on Sunday that the Islamist opposition party would run in at least 130 parliament seats in the election due this year.

Based on seat allocations, voter sentiments, racial breakdown, past victories, and age group, Politweet foresaw that PPBM could only win 27 per cent collective voter support compared to BN’s whopping 62 per cent, with 11 per cent being fence sitters.

However, its PH partners were expected to do better, with DAP leading the way holding 63 per cent voter support against BN’s 20 per cent, followed by Amanah at 50 per cent voter support against BN’s 35 per cent, and PKR with 40 per cent voter support to BN’s 39 per cent.

“PKR is contesting a mix of seats with a fairly even split between Opposition and BNleaning voters. DAP is contesting mainly urban/semi-urban, Chinese-majority seats with a large proportion of Opposition-leaning voters.

“Amanah is contesting mostly rural, Malay-majority seats with a large proportion of Opposition-leaning voters. However 26/27 seats were contested by PAS in GE13, which means this large share of voters will be split between both opposition parties.

“If voter sentiment in GE14 remains the same as GE13, we can expect Amanah and PPBM to win few seats,” it reported.

Politweet’s study is based on data from the 2017 first quarter electoral roll.

Looking at the overall voter support, the study found that 45 per cent of new voters were supporting the ruling coalition due to high proportion of new Malay voters in areas that saw stronger BN support in GE13.

PPBM has targeted leadership roles in four states and will field many youth candidates in the GE14.

Its supreme council member, Datuk Rais Hussin, who also heads the party’s policy and strategy bureau, said PPBM has already started shortlisting candidates and has more than one potential candidate for every seat it will contest.

Despite the party being made of many former Umno leaders, Rais said that the youth in the party will get a fair representation among candidates fielded.

“We are a party that is comprised of 57 per cent youths, so you can expect a sizeable chunk of our candidates to be youths with the right knowledge and skills,” Rais told an online portal.

The party has also earmarked Perlis, Kedah, Perak and Johor where it expects to take a leadership position.

Half of PPBM’s 52 seats are in these four key states. It will contest two out of three federal seats in Perlis, 6 out of the 15 seats in Kedah, 8 out of the 24 seats in Perak, and 10 out of 26 seats in Johor.

“In terms of influence and clout, we are strongest in Johor and Kedah, alongside Perak. So these are the states we have earmarked as PPBM taking a leadership role,” Rais said.

Kedah is the home state of party chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who recently revealed that he might contest in GE14 either in the Kubang Pasu or Langkawi parliamentary seats.

His son, Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir, who is the deputy president of the party, was also previously the MP for Jerlun and formerly the Kedah Mentri Besar.

PPBM president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin is a former Johor Mentri Besar, and is also serving his fifth term as the MP for Pagoh in the state.

All three leaders have not confirmed where they will contest the next elections as of yet, but PPBM could wrap up the process soon, Rais said.

“We will announce the candidates for the main constituencies at least soon, once we have finished the vetting and selection process (for candidates),” he said.