Redelineation, low voter turnout will help BN win big

SHAH ALAM: A redelineation exercise and low voter turnout will help the Barisan Nasional (BN) achieve a bigger victory in the 14th general election, according to analysts.

Institut Darul Ehsan chief executive Professor Dr Mohammad Redzuan Othman said yesterday that BN always wins big after an election that follows a redelineation exercise.

He cited the 11th general election in 2004 when BN bounced back after a poor performance in 1999. The convincing victory was widely attributed to the appointment of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, or Pak Lah, to the prime minister’s office the year before, but Redzuan believed redelineation had played a big part in the win.

“BN achieved victory not because they were popular but because they were helped by the redelineation. They won by design.

“Many said BN won big in 2004 due to the Pak Lah factor but it wasn’t the case. If Pak Lah were popular, he would have gotten 70% of the popular vote,” he said during a forum on the Election Commission’s proposed redelineation exercise, at Institut Darul Ehsan here yesterday.

There were 219 federal seats in the 2004 election, of which BN won 198 along with a 63.8% share of the popular vote.

In comparison, BN under Pak Lah’s predecessor, Dr Mahathir Mohamad in the 1999 general election won 148 out of 193 seats and 63.9% of the popular vote.

The 1999 general election saw reduced support for BN resulting from the Reformasi movement sparked by Dr Mahathir’s sacking of Anwar Ibrahim from government and Anwar’s subsequent “black eye”incident in prison.

The Election Commission conducted a redelineation exercise in 2003, ahead of GE11, which had increased the number of federal seats.

In 1999, more than 50% of Malay voters had supported the opposition, which helped PAS to form the state government in Terengganu, he said.

The forum yesterday discussed the proposed redelineation exercise which has been completed except for Selangor.

The redelineation will be the sixth after electoral boundaries were redrawn in 1958, 1974, 1984, 1994 and 2003.

“Although there has been a few redelineations, Malaysians and voters have been accepting them.

“Before 2003, there were not many protests because they (the voters) felt that the EC had done a good and fair job,” said Redzuan.

Political analyst Wong Chin Huat said low voter turnout of below 70% will hand BN a twothirds majority.

Wong of the Penang Institute said the ruling coalition’s chances of securing a two-thirds majority will depend on voter turnout.

“If voter turnout is high, it is usually because people are angry and this would cost the government and also cause the failure of gerrymandering,” he said during the forum.

Voter turnout in the last national polls in 2013 was nearly 85%. BN failed to regain its twothirds majority in Parliament and obtained 47% of the popular vote, while the then opposition pact Pakatan Rakyat won 52%.

Voter turnout in previous elections have generally been over 70%.

Wong’s analysis comes as calls to boycott or cast spoilt votes in the 14th general election circulate on social media.

Those holding such sentiments have said they are unhappy with the lack of choices while some are upset at the opposition for naming Dr Mahathir as prime minister candidate despite his chequered tenure.

Wong said many people did not realise the consequences if they failed to vote.

He said if BN won back a twothirds majority, they would have the ability to add new seats in Parliament through redelineation of electoral boundaries.

The federal constitution provides that a redelineation exercise should be conducted at least every eight years.

Wong said that while the current redelineation did not add electoral seats, an exercise that did must be completed within two years, it would open the doors for the EC to do so.

“However, if more seats are added in parliament or in state assemblies, therefore redelineation must be completed within two years,” he said.

?So) if people they don’t vote, they would not only help the EC (Election Commission) but in fact they would open the door to a worse redelineation. That’s the biggest problem that the people do not see.”