Elections: A mosquito bite can also be fatal

FOR the past one week, I have been following the local elections (polling on Nov 24) in Taiwan, either through Astro or the social media. The elections are for the cities (mayors) and municipalities (councillors) among others. These are held every four years, the last one being in 2014. The election for the Taiwanese president, by comparison, is also held every four years, the last one being in 2016 with the next one due 2020.

In other words, it is sort of a ‘midterm’ election, not unlike those in America; except that in US it’s for the Senate and House of Representatives. In US, these elections are also held every four years, just like those for the Presidency. And, just like in Taiwan, otherwise known as Republic of China (ROC), the next US Presidency election is also due in 2020.

Although the local elections in Taiwan is for the whole country, the focus is on the two major cities – capital Taipei in the north and Kaohsiung in the south. Normally, the main focus will be on the Capital. However, Kaohsiung despite being only the second largest city, has stolen the limelight. All because of one man – Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Han Kuo-yu, a former soldier. Although there are four candidates, the real fight is between Han and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Chen Chi-mai. The other two are independents, including former journalist-turned politician who became famous when her sex tape was leaked more than 10 years ago – Chu Mei-feng.

But how did a former soldier become a political sensation nationwide overnight? Simple, Han happens to be at the right place at the right time. You see, Kaohsiung has for the last 20 years been ruled by a DPP Mayor, Miss Chen who just like Taiwanese president Miss Tsai never married. Twenty years ago, DPP defeated KMT not only in Kaohsiung but most part of Taiwan which for the first time saw a DPP president, Mr Chen who later went to jail for corruption when KMT regained power and Ma became president. Sounds familiar? Ha ha.

Twenty years is a long time. By now the voters of Kaohsiung are longing for change. All strata of society – farmers, fishermen, businessmen, housewives, the working class, the environ-concious, the youngsters, you name it – want change. And Han of KMT is there at the right place and the right time. He is leading the opinion polls too.

Without himself expecting it, Han has become an overnight sensation and household name not just in Kaohsiung but indeed the whole of Taiwan. He is so popular that even KMT candidates in nearby districts have enlisted his help to speak in their rallies. The reason? Han has been pulling in the biggest crowds, not by the thousands but tens of thousands. His latest rally pulled in 100,000, with some coming in the night before complete with sleeping bags to secure front seats.

This scenario was a reverse of the last election in 2014 where DPP rallies used to pull in bigger crowds than KMT candidates. Han is so popular that KMT candidates in most parts of Taiwan are expected to win too. In fact, a Japanese newspaper predicted that KMT is now a threat to DPP presidential candidate in the next national election. President Tsai unseated KMT in 2016 and now it looks like KMT is poised to take revenge in 2020. The reason I am writing this is because it reminds me of the recent Malaysian election. When thousands attended DAP rallies in the towns in West Malaysia, the attitude of BN (in particular MCA and Gerakan) leaders at that time was it was only to be expected in urban areas and that even if DAP won all the town seats, BN would still be the government and that the Malays would still vote for Umno. Infact, BN believed that it could not only retain power but also secure a 2/3 majority.

How wrong they were! Not only MCA and Gerakan can now close shop, for the first time the majority of Malay voters deserted Umno and voted for PKR, Bersatu and Amanah or PAS instead. The Islamist party even captured Kelantan and Terengganu. BN/Umno was left with only two States – Pahang and Perlis. Forget about two-thirds, BN could not even garner enough seats (112) to form the federal government! Najib was rumoured to have said in the wee hours of May 10: “Do they really hate me so much?”

What made Najib so confident that BN would retain 2/3 or at least power was the feedback he got from relevant government agencies, Umno and their spy networks. Obviously, those providing feedback never expected BN to lose, so they played safe by assuring Najib that BN would win again. Nobody, wanting to protect their own rice bowls, had the guts to tell Najib that BN might lose because of 1MDB and the $2.6 billion scandals. After the election, former Umno youth leader Khairy said he regretted not telling Najib the truth. Why cry over spilt milk? If he didn’t had the guts to tell Najib, then he is equally guilty.

Closer home, the same thing happened in Sabah. BN in particular Umno was so confident of winning that at one point they even brushed off Warisan as a ‘mosquito party’. They said the most Warisan would win are a few seats, mainly in the East Coast and that Umno’s Muslim votes won’t go away. Now they realised too late that sometimes a mosquito bite can also be fatal! Same thing here, everyone wanted to tell then CM Musa only the nice things that he wanted to hear.

Typical of Sabah. Tun Mustapha failed to feel the pulse of the people and Usno lost. Harris was surrounded by ‘tukang angkat kaki’ and Berjaya lost. PBS thought Sabahans would be with them forever with them and it ‘lost’. Umno was proud of the fact that it managed to break the nine-year jinx of Usno, Berjaya and PBS and it eventually lost too. Coming back to the rallies and the crowd. Two or three days before polling on May 9, thousands turned up at the Warisan/DAP/PKR final major rally in front of the Boulevard Hypermarket at Lintas Uptownship. Wan Azizah was there. Shafie was the last speaker. Former Umno Penampang deputy head Dato’ Freddie Sua announced there and then that he was joining Warisan with 200 of his supporters. The mood was electrifying. I reported this to a senior Sabah Umno leader and his reaction was “Ia lah, orang datang pasal orang mahu dengar” (It’s ok, the crowd came because they wanted to listen). By comparison, while the Boulevard rally was going on, only a handful tunred up at the joint MCA/ LDP (for Luyang and Likas) ‘rally’ at the Damai community centre, comprising mostly party workers. The hall was not even half-filled. Even the band and the singers had no mood to perform! A seasoned politician would have recognised the sign but then again, when one didn’t expect BN to lose they would be blind to facts.

Now everything is too late. As the saying goes, “the rice has become porridge” and there is no use crying over spilt milk. As long as Pakatan Harapan (including Sabah) remain united, the next election would still be theirs, followed by the next. The only thing that can ruin them is any internal split within Pakatan parties or, for argument sake, Mahathir and Anwar fight while Azmin and Anwar also fight. But till then, which may or may not happen, life must go on and Malaysians in general must give Pakatan a chance to govern and prove itself. In the case of Sabah, they should allow the Warisan-led government a chance to do the same thing.

Will Pakatan split and Umno benefit? Will Upko be dumped by Warisan/DAP/PKR after the next State election when they are not needed anymore? A historian is very fond of saying ‘History always repeat itelf”. But till then, let us not play the part of God and “let His will be done”. Umno, just like MCA and Gerakan, are dead but not buried anyway. Amen. A Concerned Sabahan