Impossible is possible in Sabah politics
“Democracy Allows Frogs” screamed the headline of a local newspaper recently. It was the Prime Minister cum PH chairman’s response to a question by a reporter on whether he or his Pribumi party would accept ‘frogs’.
When Dr M said this, I knew something would happen. After all, this came from Malaysia’s most senior, most experienced and ‘shrewd’ politician.
True enough, since his statement, hardly a day passes without an Umno MP or assemblyman joining PH in general and Pribumi in particular. Although some of the ‘frogs’ have remained Independent since they left Umno, for all intents or purposes they would end up in PH or Pribumi sooner or later.
The PM had said that Umno MPs who ‘jumped’ would have to become Independents first and they would be monitored for their attitude before being accepted. A case in point is former Umno minister Tok Pah who has since been accepted.
Recently, another Umno MP in the Peninsular and Sabah MP and former Foreign Minister and former Sabah CM’s brother Datuk Anifah Aman also quit Umno. Anifah however is still an Independent.
The former Umno Puteri chief and former deputy minister also joined Pribumi a couple of days ago, posting a photograph of herself handing over her form to the PM.
But the bombshell was when, also a couple of days ago, all but one of Sabah Umno’s MPs and almost all of its remaining assemblymen left Umno en bloc. Joining them, unexpectedly, was PBRS deputy president Arthur Kurup who is Pensiangan MP, the sole MP from his party.
Although these YBs have remained tight-lipped on their next course of action after becoming Independents for some time (expected to be 1 to 2 months), by now it is an open secret that they would end up in Pribumi, Dr M’s party which has yet to enter Sabah.
One of the Divisional leaders who jumped, Kudat Umno chief let the cat out of the bag when he spoke to reporters on the eve of Hajiji’s press conference. He said if he were to jump he would jump to a “bigger ship” like Pribumi.
Another development which lent credence to the speculation was an admission by the man himself that the four Sabah Umno MPs who jumped did see him recently (more or less the same time that he made his famous statement of “Democracy Allows Frogs”.
Things became clearer when two Pribumi supreme council members were present at Hajiji’s press conference. They claimed that they happened to be in KK and joined the ‘lunch’ prior to the PC as ‘friends’. Perhaps only kids would believe that. As the saying goes, “when you paint a man/ woman you don’t have to include the intestines”.
A day after Hajiji’s PC, a photo surfaced in the social media showing Dr M with a few KL Umno leaders having dinner in his house recently. The leader of the group, no less than the Umno No. 2 himself quickly clarified that it was just a courtesy call to persuade the old man not to ‘dissolve’ Umno which he once led for two decades.
One of those in the photo, former federal minister Shahidan said “something big” would happen soon and he could not wait to witness it.
True enough, on Friday as I am writing this letter another five KL Umno MPs including some in the photo announced their departure from Umno. This leaves Umno with less than 40 MPs, from the original 50. I would not be surprised if by the time this letter is published, Umno is left with less than 30.
Now, why would Dr M accept these Umno MPs? He had said soon after the election that the door was closed. The other PH component parties also echoed his view then.
So why the sudden ‘U-Turn’ ? (By now the PH government is being mocked as a ‘U-Turn’ government.
The reason is simple. Politics is a number game. Following the May 9 election, Pribumi found itself to be the PH component party with the least number of MPs, just 13, even less than Amanah an offshot of PAS. PKR has the most MPs - 50 - followed by DAP.
Despite having the least MPs, the only reason why Dr M is PM is due to a pre-election agreement that should PH win, the old man would be PM for two years followed by Anwar.
By now it is an open secret that the Agong had first offer Anwar’s wife Azizah (Anwar was in prison) to be PM by virtue of her leading a party with the most seats. All PH parties used the PKR symbol in the election, except Sabah and Sarawak.
But Azizah politely told the King that they had a gentleman agreement and she could not stab the old man in the back. Thus, the swearing-in ceremony was delayed from morning till night time.
For this I salute Azizah. She could have played Dr M out and there was nothing the old man could do about it. After all, she and her family suffered for 20 years since Anwar’s initial arrest. But as they say, time heals all wounds. In a speech prior to the election, Dr M openly said that he owed Anwar and family a favour.
Coming back to the ‘number game’ of politics. Dr M has two possible reasons to want to increase the number of Pribumi MPs by as many as possible, at least more than that of Amanah’s if not DAP’s or PKR’s.
The first reason is if Pribumi has a sizable number of MPs (thanks to the Umno defectors) he would stand a better chance if there is a move next year to ask him to continue to be PM beyond the two-year agreed period. Or, to put it differently but bluntly, should Anwar become impatient or try to be ‘funny’ by next year, at least it will not be easy for him if the number of Pribumi MPs has doubled or even tripled. If that happens, DAP and Amanah are expected to side with the old man. Lim Guan Eng is not in the good books of Anwar who is probably jealous of his senior position as Finance Minister (the first Chinese to hold the post after decades).
The second reason is, even if the first does not happen, when the time eventually comes for the old man to hand over to Anwar, with an increase in number of MPs, at least Anwar cannot ‘sembranah’ Pribumi. Anwar can always say his Cabinet will be based on the number of MPs each component has.
With an increase in the number of MPs, at least Pribumi No. 2 Muhyiddin would stand a better chance of being promoted to DPM (his old job) when Dr M retires. Otherwise, there is nothing to stop Anwar from giving the No.2 post to someone from his own party or Amanah or even DAP. Politics is a number game.
Dr M’s decision to accept (or at least consider accepting) the Umno ‘frogs’ has not gone down well with PKR and DAP, understandably. Amanah seems OK with it. Amanah president and Defence Minister treats Dr M as a father.
Both PKR and DAP have no reason to be happy if Pribumi’s MPs double or even triple. They will feel threatened. But only DAP talks about principle. As for Anwar, naturally he has no reason to want an increase in strength on the part of Pribumi for obvious reason.
Besides, Anwar is practising double standards. He just recently accepted Balung assemblyman from Sabah into PKR against the wishes of Sabah PKR. So what is he talking about? If the Umno MPs chose PKR instead of Pribumi, would he have said the same thing? I doubt. He is probably both jealous and feel threatened.
Finally, coming back to Sabah and Hajiji’s announcement. Although CM and Warisan president has said that it was a good move and that Warisan was prepared to accept them provided no strings attached, it is more than meets the eye.
Hajiji never said they would apply to join Warisan. He merely said they would support both the federal and state governments, that is all. Besides, as I have stated above, they (Umno MPs) joining Pribumi is almost certain. All the signs are there.
But then again, it is not as easy as it sounds. Everybody knows that Pribumi did not contest in the Sabah election because it had an understanding with Warisan led by the CM. After the election, Dr M had reiterated that Pribumi would not enter Sabah. He repeated that pledge after Pribumi was launched in Sarawak.
But this is politics. Politics is the art of the possible. Dr M can always turn around and now say that since Pribumi is the only PH party not having a branch in Sabah, perhaps it should start one. He used the same excuse when entering Sarawak.
Besides, it is strategy. Dr M cannot count on Shafie to support him until the end of time. What if Shafie supports Anwar one day instead? As I have explained above, Dr M has nothing to lose by increasing the strength of his party, rather than relying on others.
Although Dr M has time and again said that Pribumi would not enter Sabah, sources say that the Sabah Umno MPs managed to convince him otherwise. They argued that only Pribumi can draw away the thousands and thousands of Sabah Umno members as they are both Malay/ Muslim-based parties. In other words, to continue the Malay struggle through Pribumi.
They further argued that Warisan would not be able to attract the Muslim Umno members as Warisan is a multiracial party whereby even some of their MPs/Assemblymen are KDMs or Chinese.
Although on the surface the CM has said the former Umno MPs are welcome, but deep down inside he must have begun wondering what exactly is Dr M’s game.
He would not want to offend the old man either for obvious reasons. Anyway, politics is such that it is not impossible to find Warisan fighting PH in the next election (Sabahans may well support them being a local party). Who wants to bet with me that this won’t happen?
Lastly, by now it is almost certain that the former Umno MPs led by Hajiji will join Pribumi. So, what happens to Gabungan Bersatu Sabah (GBS) which Umno Sabah was supposed to be part of? Suddenly PBS and Star are left in the lurch. What to do, this is politics. For argument sake, if the Umno MPs and assemblymen were to join GBS, then they might as well have remained in Umno isn’t it?