Navigating South China Sea: A delicate balancing act for regional stability
THE South China Sea (SCS) has once again taken center stage in global affairs, as evidenced by a recent statement from ASEAN foreign ministers calling for the maintenance and promotion of stability in the maritime sphere in Southeast Asia.
This declaration comes at a crucial time, given the escalating tensions, particularly between the Philippines and China, that threaten the peace, security, and stability of the region.
At the heart of the unease lies the Second Thomas Shoal, where incidents between the Philippines and China have garnered international attention. The Philippines has expressed alarm at the increased presence of Chinese warships near the Mischief Reef, while the China Coast Guard issued warnings to Philippine personnel near the Scarborough Shoal.
Analysts interpret these actions as China’s indirect pressure strategy, contributing to the escalation of tension without directly engaging in conflict, making it challenging for both parties to soften their hardline positions.
In response to China’s growing influence, the Philippines has strategically sought support from external partners, intensifying cooperation with the United States and conducting joint military exercises with Canada and Australia. However, this move raises questions about whether such alliances are adding fuel to the already simmering fire.
External parties, strategically concerned about China’s assertiveness, fear the destabilization of regional peace, potential disruption of water access, and interference with their interests. While the Philippines seeks security assurance from these parties, opinions on their presence vary, introducing another layer of complexity to the situation.
Vietnam, another claimant in the SCS dispute, is taking a measured approach to maintaining a delicate diplomatic balance between the United States and China. Despite elevated relations with both countries, tensions persist, particularly with ongoing reclamation and island-building activities at the Spratly Islands. This raises the question of how Vietnam’s actions reflect its efforts to carefully manage territorial disputes without undermining bilateral relations.
The ongoing negotiations for a Code of Conduct (COC) between ASEAN and China have reached the second reading of the Single Draft Negotiating Text. However, a significant breakthrough is not expected soon due to unresolved issues, including debates over the COC’s legal binding, geographical scope, and prohibited activities. The slow progress raises concerns about the COC’s effectiveness in addressing the complex challenges in the SCS.
The impending US presidential election adds another layer of uncertainty to the SCS dynamics. Many articles explore how the election outcome may influence the region, analyzing the approaches of former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden. Experts suggest that the election may impact the US approach only if there is a change of government, highlighting the potential for shifts in a more transactional approach and the need for contributions from regional countries.
Anticipating potential uncertainties in US involvement, the Philippines aims to diversify its security cooperation rather than relying solely on the
US. This evolving situation underscores the complex interplay of regional dynamics and geopolitical interests, emphasizing the need for continued monitoring of
SCS developments and their implications for regional stability.
I take interest in the statement by the Asean Foreign Minister recently. The ASEAN statement eloquently articulates a robust commitment to upholding peace, security and stability in the region, particularly in response to recent developments in the South China Sea. Notable observations on key points include emphasizing a commitment to peaceful dispute resolution.
The statement underscores the importance of legal and diplomatic processes while firmly rejecting the use or threat of force. This commitment aligns seamlessly with universally recognized principles of international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
The reference to the Joint Communique of the 56th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting highlights the collaborative regional effort to maintain stability in the maritime sphere. The emphasis on strengthening maritime cooperation and exploring new initiatives underscores the collective dedication to addressing challenges and promoting cooperation.
Expressing concern over recent South China Sea developments, the statement calls for the promotion of peace, safety, security, stability, and freedom of navigation. It reiterates the need for mutual trust, confidence, and selfrestraint in activities that could complicate or escalate disputes.
Welcoming efforts to manage situations and ensure peace and stability in the South China Sea, the statement recognizes the benefits of having the region as a sea of peace, stability, cooperation, and prosperity. The importance of peaceful dialogue is seamlessly emphasized, with a positive mention of recent maritime dialogues between China and the United States. The hope is expressed that such dialogues will contribute to strengthening stability and cooperation in the region’s maritime sphere. Insyaalah!
Reiterating unity and solidarity among the involved parties, the statement emphasizes the shared commitment to maintaining and further strengthening stability in the maritime sphere. The ultimate goal is to contribute to overall peace, security, stability, and prosperity in the region.
The commendable initiative taken by ASEAN Foreign Ministers reflects a diplomatic and collaborative approach towards addressing challenges in the South China Sea. It places a strong emphasis on dialogue, adherence to international law, and a collective commitment to regional stability. Despite this positive step, the South China Sea remains a focal point of geopolitical tensions, underscoring the persistent need for a resolute commitment to peace, security, and stability in the region. Navigating the intricate geopolitical landscape of the SCS, influenced by ongoing COC negotiations, responses from claimant states, and potential shifts in US policy, requires sustained and careful efforts to achieve enduring regional stability.