Trump as president: The wait is over
Finally, Donald J Trump has taken over the office of the President of United States. He has made it clear that it will be America first, in his address after being sworn in for the job.
The question at the back of everyone’s mind: What will happen to US and the world over the next four years?
No one has the complete answer to this big question at the moment because he has just started and he hasn’t given too many specifics in his messages. How to blame him when Twitter only allows 140 characters in one message? America looking inward
The era of America looking inward has arrived. That is understandable as this is part of Trump’s agenda to tackle their own domestic issues.
If you read history of any country much longer than US, you will know that sooner or later the leader and its people would have to refocus on domestic agenda to fix up pieces that have been broken due to earlier policies.
A country, which continues to try expanding their influence indef initely, will suffer its consequence. In a recent memory, one had crumbled.
Another key question to ask here is: how is Trump and his team going to achieve his policy goals of creating 25 million American jobs and grow its economy at four per cent growth per annum?
It is interesting to see if ‘ Trumponomics’ work – a set of bold economic plan Trump advocates such as cutting personal and corporate taxes, restructuring US trade deals and introducing large fiscal stimulus measures focused on infrastructure and defense.
I am sure Trump is moving ahead with his protectionist economic and trade policies of “buy American and hire American first” to try placate his voters as well as to achieve his pol icy goals despite warnings from many of her trade partners.
It may coem as a surprise to you that the US became economically strong not through free trade but through putting up trade barrier and tariffs in late 18th century.
Now, I am sure Trump will use it as bargaining chips on the negotiation table with her trade partners.
The next logical question to ask is: With Trump’s protectionist policies, how will it affect the rest of the world? This is the area that many other countries are anxious about.
Trump will be using his strength and business skills of negotiation to good use. The pattern is clear. I already sense that the rhetoric he is kicking up is part of his strategy to ruffle up his opponents – whether it is China, Mexico, Europe or Japan – before he opens the re- negotiation of trade deals or engaging in foreign policy engagement.
Looking at the team that he has chosen, to me they will be hawkish in their attitude when dealing with the other countries, in an attempt to “fight for fair but tough trade deals”. Market more volatile
On the day of Trump’s inauguration, Marketwatch. com came up with an article with the heading: “President Donald Trump is set to unleash a cascade of stock-market anxiety”. It also quoted a commentator which sum up the scenario quite well:
“In my almost 43 years on Wall Street, I am not sure that I have ever seen so much consternation (anxiety) than at present. It is not just differences of opinion but it is a quite real fear of the unknown, I suppose.
“People just don’t know what they are getting into or where the country is heading. No surprise, I think, as tomorrow the Present will have a material break with the Past and the Future is a calculated guess.”
The fact is that market participants hate uncertainty. But Trump seems to be thriving on keeping others in suspense, the same way he kept the audiences at the edge of their seats in his TV reality show. And in business negotiation strategy, you keep the opponent guessing by not divulging too much information.
So you have been forewarned. Market volatility will definitely be higher. The epicenter has been identif ied. We will be experiencing the tremors. The only question left is: ripples, waves or tsunamis?