Global fuel markets jump as Harvey’s surge ripples beyond Gulf
HOUSTON/NEW YORK: Tropical Storm Harvey’s effect on the energy industry has spread beyond flooded US refiners as fuel pipelines are also shut, threatening a supply squeeze around the country and roiling world markets as traders scramble to find alternative supplies.
The storm, which lashed Louisiana with rain on Thursday, has pummelled the US Gulf Coast, burying Houston and the surrounding area under several feet of rain and forcing the closure of nearly a quarter of US refining capacity.
Benchmark US gasoline prices and margins surged anew in overnight trading on Thursday. The jump came after the Colonial Pipeline, the biggest US fuel system, said it would shut its main lines to the Northeast by Thursday, hit by outages at pumping points and lack of supplies from refiners.
That artery can carry three million barrels of gasoline and other products daily.
At least two East Coast refineries have already run out of gasoline for immediate delivery as they scrambled to fill barges to markets typically supplied by the Gulf Coast, two refinery sources said.
Others were seen running at higher rates to boost profitability by filling shortages.
“This is going to be the worst thing the US has seen in decades from an energy standpoint,” said an East Coast market source, who did not want to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the press.
US gasoline futures jumped 5.8 per cent in Asian trading, to over US$2 per gallon, and that contract has now gained more than 23 per cent since the August 23 close, just before the storm’s beginning.
The Gulf makes up nearly half of total refining capacity in the US - the world’s largest net exporter of refined petroleum products - sending the disaster’s effects rippling through global flows.
About 4.4 million barrels of US refining capacity have been shut by Harvey, including the nation’s largest refiner, Motiva Port Arthur, which can process more than 600,000 barrels a day. The total shut-in is about 24 per cent of US refining capacity - almost equal to Japan’s daily consumption.
Traders in Europe were rushing to reroute cargoes to the US and Latin America to fill the gap left by refining and shipping closures, but supplies may not arrive fast enough to avert a crunch.
“Sourcing additional barrels from Europe is a potential solution, but an increased level of uncertainty is introduced surrounding the timeliness of delivery given the logistics of travel time and securing tankers,” said Michael Tran, director of global energy strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Attracted by a surge in profits, refiners in Asia have also been trying to fix fuel cargoes to the US, despite the huge distance across the Pacific.
Gasoline refinery profits in Singapore GL92-SIN-CRK, a benchmark in Asia, jumped to over US$15.50 per barrel since the storm hit the US late last week, their highest level since early 2016.
The US disruptions have hit wholesalers.
The premium for Chicago-area gasoline above benchmark futures is at its highest since June 2016, while the Gulf Coast price is at its widest above futures since August 2012.
Suppliers in Chicago were trying to secure supplies after the Explorer Pipeline, which typically carries about 350,000 barrels a day (bpd) to the region, shut down.
“It’s not a significant problem at the present time, but it could turn into one,” said William Fleischli, executive vice-president of the Illinois Petroleum Marketers Association, which represents 400 fuel distributors.
Fleischli said much depended on how long the shutdowns last.
The AAA said early Wednesday – the latest data available – that retail gasoline prices were up 6 cents from a week ago at US$2.404 per gallon of regular gasoline nationwide. They have risen as much as 12 cents in some states, like Georgia.
Goldman Sachs analysts wrote Wednesday that they expected about a tenth of what is now offline to stay shut for several months. — Reuters