Australian banks at risk if house prices slump

SYDNEY: Australia’s four major banks could suffer a ratings downgrade in the event of a severe housing market downturn with second-order economic effects, a stress test report published by Fitch Ratings showed yesterday.

Australia has seen a surge in property prices in recent years, sending the household debt-toincome ratio to a record high 190 per cent at a time when income growth is crawling at a snail’s pace, worrying policymakers.

Fitch said its test was undertaken as risks within the household sector continue to grow, adding that Australian banks were particularly vulnerable because of their large mortgage books.

Fitch’s stress test showed Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac Banking Corp – the country’s top two mortgage lenders – experiencing the largest losses in an extreme case.

But the proportionally larger commercial exposures of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group and National Australia Bank would render them vulnerable in a broader stress event, Fitch added.

Westpac and ANZ declined to comment while NAB said it was ‘comfortable’ with its home loan portfolio.

CBA noted there was no change to its rating, saying it was standard practice for ratings agencies to consider multiple scenarios.

Fitch said credit ratings could come under pressure in severe scenarios where banks also suffer from follow-on economic effects including a fall in consumer spending and higher losses from banks’ business loan portfolios.

“The severe scenarios would involve a negative shift in Fitch’s view of the operating environment for Australian banks, as well as our assessment of asset quality, capitalisation, profitability and, potentially, funding,” it said.

To be sure, Fitch’s base case is not a sharp or substantial correction in Australia’s housing market. The test, in fact, showed the banks could still withstand “a significant housing market downturn.”

House price growth across Australia’s major cities have already tempered since late last year.

This run of losses is generally seen likely to continue in 2018 as banks clamp down on so called ‘liar loans’ amid an exhaustive year-long judicial inquiry which has uncovered a series of wrongdoings. — Reuters