Here’s why the tax cuts are such a hard sell for Republicans
REPUBLICANS are counting on their tax overhaul to stave off disaster in the midterm elections.
But they’re having a hard time selling the big package to voters on the campaign trail, raising questions about just how effective lowering taxes, which has traditionally been synonymous with GOP rule, will be as a message heading into November. In a bid to boost the impact on individuals, my colleague Erica Werner reported earlier this week that House Republicans leaders want to make permanent the tax overhaul’s cuts for individuals.
Top Republican strategists say there’s no reason to panic, yet. They blame a mix of factors for the tax package’s lack of traction: President Donald Trump’s unpopularity and the president’s message discipline on his own landmark win.
GOP strategists also argue the relief some taxpayers expected to see filing their returns this week won’t fully kick in until next year. They say the law itself represented a muddled set of objectives that prioritised a corporate cut over benefits to families.
Some Republicans contend the party may have discovered the ceiling on the support the tax cuts can generate.
“Tax cutting is built into the GOP brand, so asking for extra credit is like a Boy Scout asking for an extra badge for telling the truth,” Republican strategist and Trump critic Mike Murphy said.
The party’s enthusiasm about rising approval for the cuts early in the year reflected the “faulty supposition that when a monthly poll is done, voters are locked in,” he says. Rather, polls are “a noise meter - what’s in the news this week and what’s loud gets pushed. When tax cuts were everywhere for six weeks, people were generally in favor . . . But it inflates like a balloon and then goes out.”
Murphy said there’s still time to sell the cuts - especially if wages are rising and GOP candidates make the case the tax cuts deserve some credit for goosing economic growth. Then again, he said, “Trump’s long political shadow looms over everything.” A senior Republican aide agreed: “You need to look at the poll numbers through the prism: Anything associated with Trump is upside down.”
A new poll this week shows support for the tax overhaul has dropped down to the same levels as around the time of its passage late last year. The latest NBC-Wall Street Journal poll, for example, shows that just 27 per cent of Americans think the law is a good idea, while 36 per cent call it a bad idea - roughly the sentiment reflected in the same poll in December. In between, amid a wave of stories about companies sharing their windfalls with workers in the form of bonuses and other goodies, backing for the law crested in January at 30 per cent.
A Gallup poll this week shows a majority still disapprove of the law, 52 per cent to 39 per cent, though approval has improved 10 points since early December.
Trump made that argument on Friday morning:
Trump tweeted “Nancy Pelosi is going absolutely crazy about the big Tax Cuts given to the American People by the Republicans... got not one Democrat Vote! Here’s a choice. They want to end them and raise your taxes substantially. Republicans are working on making them permanent and more cuts!” Other Republican strategists downplay worries about the lack of the overhaul’s political resonance at this point.
“I actually think we’re in a pretty good position,” says GOP consultant Alex Conant.