Rising temperatures will mean more deaths globally, say scientists

TEPIC, Mexico, ( Thomson Reuters Foundation): Failure to meet global targets to limit rising temperatures will mean more heat- releated deaths, researchers said.

Countries have signed the Paris agreement on climate change to limit the rise in global temperatures to well below 2 degress Celcius above preindustrial levels, and ideally to 1.5 degress Celcius.

An increase of 3 degress Celcius or 4 degress Celcius could raise mortality rates by between 1 and 9 per cent, according to a study published in the journal Climatic Change.

“Currently, we are on a trajectory to reach over 3 degress Celcius of warming, and if this trend continues there would be serious consequences for health in many parts of the world,” said co- author Antonio Gasparrini in a statement.

Southeast Asian nations like the Philippines and Vietnam would be most affected by heatrelated mortality, along with those in Southern Europe and South America, according to the report.

A drop in cold- related deaths elsewhere would not be enough to offset overall increase, said researchers led by scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who looked at 23 countries for the survey.

A nudge in global temperatures from 1.5 degress Celcius to 2 degress Celcius would likely result in less than a 1 per cent increase in related deaths in warmer regions such as Southern Europe, South America and Southeast Asia, they said.

The study did not take into account measures to adapt to rising temperatures, or demographic and economic factors, but those could have an impact when it comes to reducing heat- related deaths, said lead author Ana Maria VicedoCabrera.

“Evidence so far suggests that we are adapting to heat, so we expect that in the future, maybe, the mortality risk due to temperatures could be lower compared to today, but still it’s not clear,” Vicedo- Cabrera told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. — Reuters